2 ms·
What input to their estimate process changed enough to warrant such a large shift in their numbers? Did they get new data, did their process change? Was this a
by iamthepieman 5y ago
What input to their estimate process changed enough to warrant such a large shift in their numbers? Did they get new data, did their process change? Was this a mistake?
The answer is that the CDCs automated prediction algorithm called NowCast which takes their most recent genomeic sequencing data of Covid-19 strains and uses it to forceast out two weeks in the future has/had a bug in it. The estimates coming out of Nowcast did not pass a basic smell test comparison to the actual numbers or basic common sense. Nowcast estimates showed a sustained doubling rate of 36 hours which is B-movie sci-fi level infectious.