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CDC sharply drops estimate of Omicron prevalence in U.S.
- jader201 5y ago> The public health agency’s previous estimate that the rapidly spreading variant accounted for 73.2 percent of cases nationwide on Dec. 18 is now revised down to 22.5 percent CDC estimates: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportion... Original discussion from 73.2 estimate: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29633002 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29633002 Article that predicted this would happen: https://theprepared.com/blog/73-of-covid-cases-arent-omicron-yet/ https://theprepared.com/blog/73-of-covid-cases-arent-omicron...
- iamthepieman 5y agoWhat input to their estimate process changed enough to warrant such a large shift in their numbers? Did they get new data, did their process change? Was this a mistake? The answer is that the CDCs automated prediction algorithm called NowCast which takes their most recent genomeic sequencing data of Covid-19 strains and uses it to forceast out two weeks in the future has/had a bug in it. The estimates coming out of Nowcast did not pass a basic smell test comparison to the actual numbers or basic common sense. Nowcast estimates showed a sustained doubling rate of 36 hours which is B-movie sci-fi level infectious.