5 ms·

How did you arrive at the 'carrying capacity' of the planet?

by deltree7 5y ago

civilized 5y ago
The same way doomsday preachers arrive at the date of Armageddon.
- tehjoker 5y ago
  Never before has humanity been planetary scale. This presents obvious new problems that could previously have been mitigated by migration. No longer, it's a global system operating under unified logic. The defects in that logic cannot be escaped.
- hatenberg 5y ago
  And you'd think people understood exponential growth after covid. But then I remembered that a sizeable part of the US electorate doesn't think it's real
LanceH 5y ago
It's probably less than where infinite growth takes us.
- deltree7 5y ago
  Do you have a peer reviewed scientific paper that shows any of it? Do you even know what Growth is? Since you are in HN, I'm guessing you also know the 2nd law of Thermodynamics?
Syonyk 5y ago
"Earth Overshoot Day" [0] is as good a place to start as any if you're serious about answering the question. They try to calculate, in some detail, at what point in the year the current civilization has used the earth's annual "ability to regenerate" across a range of areas, and convert it into a calendar date. So if we're using twice the earth's annual regeneration, overshoot day would be about July 1. Etc. Spider off that and you can find some good resources on how it's calculated. Needless to say, it's not a pretty picture at the moment. [0]: https://www.overshootday.org/ https://www.overshootday.org/
- fghgg 5y ago
  Earth shoot day depends on the life style of people. Thus, I don't think it can be used to describe a maximum capacity earth could sustain
  - jdmichal 5y ago
    That's like saying that the tendency of wolves to eat prey can't be used to describe a maximum capacity of wolves given an amount of prey. Maybe we could support more wolves if they starved a little? Or if they started eating pets in addition to wild prey? Or if they expanded their range? Knowing the maximum capacity that our Earth seems to be capable of sustaining based on current utilization is an important number, and isn't worthy of such a short-sighted dismissal. If lifestyles do change such that the maximum capacity increases, that's a huge win to be able to track.
    - fghgg 5y ago
      It's an important number. I am not dismissing it in general. We don't need to starve more than we have to starve now if we live less wasteful. That said, when it comes to looking at the maximum capacity earth could sustain, it rather seems short sighted to not consider life style changes while even the article being commented is about shrinking consumption.
- deltree7 5y ago
  So, the Earth Overshoot Day people know exactly the model of the Universe that they can accurately measure (let alone predict) all these things? Where is your 'scientific thinking' in questioning all these things?

How did you arrive at the 'carrying capacity' of the planet?

civilized 5y ago

The same way doomsday preachers arrive at the date of Armageddon.

tehjoker 5y ago
Never before has humanity been planetary scale. This presents obvious new problems that could previously have been mitigated by migration. No longer, it's a global system operating under unified logic. The defects in that logic cannot be escaped.
hatenberg 5y ago
And you'd think people understood exponential growth after covid. But then I remembered that a sizeable part of the US electorate doesn't think it's real

LanceH 5y ago

It's probably less than where infinite growth takes us.

deltree7 5y ago
Do you have a peer reviewed scientific paper that shows any of it? Do you even know what Growth is? Since you are in HN, I'm guessing you also know the 2nd law of Thermodynamics?

Syonyk 5y ago

"Earth Overshoot Day" [0] is as good a place to start as any if you're serious about answering the question. They try to calculate, in some detail, at what point in the year the current civilization has used the earth's annual "ability to regenerate" across a range of areas, and convert it into a calendar date. So if we're using twice the earth's annual regeneration, overshoot day would be about July 1. Etc. Spider off that and you can find some good resources on how it's calculated. Needless to say, it's not a pretty picture at the moment. [0]: https://www.overshootday.org/ https://www.overshootday.org/

fghgg 5y ago
Earth shoot day depends on the life style of people. Thus, I don't think it can be used to describe a maximum capacity earth could sustain
- jdmichal 5y ago
  That's like saying that the tendency of wolves to eat prey can't be used to describe a maximum capacity of wolves given an amount of prey. Maybe we could support more wolves if they starved a little? Or if they started eating pets in addition to wild prey? Or if they expanded their range? Knowing the maximum capacity that our Earth seems to be capable of sustaining based on current utilization is an important number, and isn't worthy of such a short-sighted dismissal. If lifestyles do change such that the maximum capacity increases, that's a huge win to be able to track.
  - fghgg 5y ago
    It's an important number. I am not dismissing it in general. We don't need to starve more than we have to starve now if we live less wasteful. That said, when it comes to looking at the maximum capacity earth could sustain, it rather seems short sighted to not consider life style changes while even the article being commented is about shrinking consumption.
deltree7 5y ago
So, the Earth Overshoot Day people know exactly the model of the Universe that they can accurately measure (let alone predict) all these things? Where is your 'scientific thinking' in questioning all these things?