3 ms·
It's not really that much of an outlier -- AAPL has had pretty ridiculous growth in each of the previous 4-year periods this century as well. 2021-12-28
by jonas21 5y ago
It's not really that much of an outlier -- AAPL has had pretty ridiculous growth in each of the previous 4-year periods this century as well.
2021-12-28 $179.29 4.19x
2017-12-28 $ 42.77 2.14x
2013-12-28 $ 20.00 2.65x
2009-12-28 $ 7.56 2.87x
2005-12-28 $ 2.63 6.57x
2001-12-28 $ 0.40 3.33x
1997-12-28 $ 0.12
I agree this can't go on for too much longer, if only because governments will eventually stop Apple if they control too much of the economy. But is there room for another 4x? Maybe?
- missedthecue 5y agoApple being a $12 trillion company in four years just seems pretty low probability to me.
- Turbots 5y ago
- lotsofpulp 5y agoWould you have you ascribed a low probability to Apple being $3T as of Dec 2021 back in Sep 2019 (when it hit $1T)?
- missedthecue 5y agoyes, and with each rapid doubling, the probability of further doubling decreases.
- ZephyrBlu 5y agoWhat you aren't taking into account is that the larger you are, the more difficult it is to grow. You can even see this in Apple's growth since 2005 slowly declining. The last couple of years have been absolutely bonkers. 4x-ing from here would be 17x their valuation in 2017. Controlling for inflation, the probability of that happening given their current valuation seems ridiculously low.