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They don't need to convince you that there's a chance for 4x growth, they need to convince those specific individuals that there's a chance. And those engineers

They don't need to convince you that there's a chance for 4x growth, they need to convince those specific individuals that there's a chance. And those engineers are immersed in a culture that could affect their perception of Apple's potential.

mgh2 5y ago
Apple is targeting its next 10 years' growth in three key markets: Laptops, VR/AR, and EVs. How big is each market cap?
- sofixa 5y ago
  VR/AR is miniscule with relatively high potential. We'll have to wait and see what they come up with, it could be great, it could be niche, no way no to know. EV has huge potential, but has a lot of competition, and Apple would be late to the party and without any serious advantages, technological, ecosystem, or otherwise. On the contrary, they'd have to build delivery and repair networks from scratch ( assuming they delegate all manufacturing). Even for their endless financial reserves, it seems very improbable they'd get anywhere serious within 10 years in the EV market. Laptops - that's a tough market with lots of competition and long retention ( as in people rarely upgrade, and tend to stick to manufacturers), many of it Apple simply cannot and could not overcome ( Windows will probably remain the de facto enterprise standard for some more time). They finally have a serious technological advantage beyond more abstract, subjective or niche ones ( better UX or light or long batter life) advantages.
  - chrischen 5y ago
    Also apple forays into new niches are generally hit or miss, though they do at least keep at it until it works like Apple Watch and Apple TV (which was near useless for the first 3-4 years).
- jorvi 5y ago
  Laptops? I remember seeing a slide a while back (2017ish) where 70% of Apple's revenue was from iPhones, 5% from iPads and 2% from Macs. No way in hell do they consider that a big growth market.
  - mgh2 5y ago
    Apple Silicon
    - jorvi 5y ago
      Laptops didn’t shrink to such a tiny part of Apple’s revenue because of poor performance, Apple is at its core a consumer electronics company, and the paradigm for what devices consumers mainly use shifted with the times.

mgh2 5y ago

Apple is targeting its next 10 years' growth in three key markets: Laptops, VR/AR, and EVs. How big is each market cap?

sofixa 5y ago
VR/AR is miniscule with relatively high potential. We'll have to wait and see what they come up with, it could be great, it could be niche, no way no to know. EV has huge potential, but has a lot of competition, and Apple would be late to the party and without any serious advantages, technological, ecosystem, or otherwise. On the contrary, they'd have to build delivery and repair networks from scratch ( assuming they delegate all manufacturing). Even for their endless financial reserves, it seems very improbable they'd get anywhere serious within 10 years in the EV market. Laptops - that's a tough market with lots of competition and long retention ( as in people rarely upgrade, and tend to stick to manufacturers), many of it Apple simply cannot and could not overcome ( Windows will probably remain the de facto enterprise standard for some more time). They finally have a serious technological advantage beyond more abstract, subjective or niche ones ( better UX or light or long batter life) advantages.
- chrischen 5y ago
  Also apple forays into new niches are generally hit or miss, though they do at least keep at it until it works like Apple Watch and Apple TV (which was near useless for the first 3-4 years).
jorvi 5y ago
Laptops? I remember seeing a slide a while back (2017ish) where 70% of Apple's revenue was from iPhones, 5% from iPads and 2% from Macs. No way in hell do they consider that a big growth market.
- mgh2 5y ago
  Apple Silicon
  - jorvi 5y ago
    Laptops didn’t shrink to such a tiny part of Apple’s revenue because of poor performance, Apple is at its core a consumer electronics company, and the paradigm for what devices consumers mainly use shifted with the times.