What kind of analysis is that? Valuations aren't based upon some arbitrary assignment of percentages to various outcomes. They're based upon hard numbers. I'm n

What kind of analysis is that? Valuations aren't based upon some arbitrary assignment of percentages to various outcomes. They're based upon hard numbers. I'm not a Facebook hater, I think their revenue will continue to grow, especially if they are able to successfully expand into new markets (hardware for example). But as for now, seeing as how they have really hit a saturation point in the US market in terms of user base to the point where usage is actually dropping, I have a hard time seeing them as anything close to a $100 billion company. I would have a very hard time investing in any company whose sole source of income was based upon display ads, and was still trying to figure out a solid revenue model. You can say that they already have one, but if you compare the long-term viability of social ads to Microsoft for example, I think you would agree that the revenues that Microsoft generates are likely to be a lot more stable than those of Facebook. I think that social networks in general are still in their infancy, and anybody who tries to peg a valuation on any of them without some more data is acting rather foolishly. I'd be very curious to know what kind of numbers Twitter is generating. It's important not to confuse hype with value. What generates the hype is not necessarily something that people are willing to pay for, and at the end of the day that's what determines a business' value.