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If you have a population of 100 positive cases, 87 vaxed, 13 unvaxed. Let's assume the unvaxed death rate is 100% (it doesn't mater). If the vaccine is 90% eff
by cm2187 5y ago
If you have a population of 100 positive cases, 87 vaxed, 13 unvaxed. Let's assume the unvaxed death rate is 100% (it doesn't mater).
If the vaccine is 90% efficient, then 10% of the 87 vaxed will die, 100% of the 13 unvaxed will die, therefore the % of vaxed in the deaths will be (we are using the same formula) 10% * 87 / (10% * 87 + 13) = 40%
If the vaccine is 15% efficient, then 85% of the 87 will die, and the % of vaxed in the deaths will be 85% * 87 / (85% * 87 + 13) = 85%
- acs5 5y agoYou're using "efficient" to mean effectiveness against death given infection, but the vaccines aren't close to 90% effective against that. [1] says they're 54% effective against death given infection, which actually predicts 78% of deaths being in the vaccinated if you plug it in to the formula. [1] https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/977249/PHE_COVID-19_vaccine_impact_on_mortality_March.pdf#page=4 https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/...