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Are you aware of the work by Meehl on actuarial vs. clinical judgment? One of the conclusions of that line of work is that fairly dumb, mechanical data-driven r
by kqr 5y ago
Are you aware of the work by Meehl on actuarial vs. clinical judgment? One of the conclusions of that line of work is that fairly dumb, mechanical data-driven rules ("actuarial judgment") consistently outperform expert opinion ("clinical judgment") even on what we think of as fairly complex topics.
The more surprising conclusion is that the dumb, data-driven rules outperform experts even when the experts get access to the same data and the decision made by the data-driven rule. Why? Humans have a tendency to think they're better than dumb rules and override these dumb rules in ways that make their decision ultimately worse.
- andrewjf 5y agoI haven’t, but I don’t think it’s a stretch to assume that conclusion doesn’t apply in creative fields.
- kqr 5y agoThe funny thing is that people say that about every field, yet one by one, Meehl and the people doing work along the same lines consistently disprove them. The result has remained remarkably consistent across many fields where people were sure it wouldn't apply. At this point it's stable enough that I think the conclusion is a good base assumption, and it would take serious evidence to show that it does not apply in any given field.
- thewarrior 5y agoWhat is a creative field ? Can you write a novel this way ?