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This discussion has happened literally every surge. Hospitalizations lag case counts by about 1 to 2 weeks. Deaths further lag hospitalization counts by anothe

This discussion has happened literally every surge. Hospitalizations lag case counts by about 1 to 2 weeks. Deaths further lag hospitalization counts by another 1 to 2 weeks. Omicron arrived in NYC weeks before it arrived in Florida. You can see it evident in the case counts. You have to wait the appropriate amount of time (ex: ~1 to 2 weeks to compare hospitalizations, and ~2 to 4 weeks to compare deaths). ------------ Omicron hasn't hit Texas yet. So in a week or two (or whenever Omicron arrives there), Texans will be making the same time-delayed fallacy that everyone else has made. After 3 or 4 "humps", you'd think that people would be understanding of this time-delay effect by now.

paul_f 5y ago
"Just wait two weeks" - this mantra is a bit overplayed? The USA is not monolithic. COVID has proven to be seasonal. Flu season in Texas/Florida are quite different than New York/Michigan.
- dragontamer 5y ago
  Florida hit +300% cases in the past 5 days. That's too quick to show up in hospitalization statistics yet. I'm expecting that in 2 weeks or so, those people start showing up in hospitals.
  - paul_f 5y ago
    Yep, just wait 2 weeks :-)
    - dragontamer 5y ago
      https://www.miamidade.gov/information/library/2021-12-27-covid-dashboard.pdf https://www.miamidade.gov/information/library/2021-12-27-cov... In the past 7 days, hospitalizations rose by 107% in Florida, matching the rate of COVID19 growth from a week or two ago. We're _already_ seeing the massive increase in hospitalization numbers in Florida. Its a time-delayed compared to case-counts, but its clearly hitting Florida now. What do you think will happen in the next week (when last week had +300% case count) ?? There was a blip in the data for Christmas / Christmas Eve (I dunno if that's because fewer people were working, or if fewer people decided to go into the hospital). But otherwise, the trajectory and hospital usage number-trend is pretty clear and evident already.

paul_f 5y ago

"Just wait two weeks" - this mantra is a bit overplayed? The USA is not monolithic. COVID has proven to be seasonal. Flu season in Texas/Florida are quite different than New York/Michigan.

dragontamer 5y ago
Florida hit +300% cases in the past 5 days. That's too quick to show up in hospitalization statistics yet. I'm expecting that in 2 weeks or so, those people start showing up in hospitals.
- paul_f 5y ago
  Yep, just wait 2 weeks :-)
  - dragontamer 5y ago
    https://www.miamidade.gov/information/library/2021-12-27-covid-dashboard.pdf https://www.miamidade.gov/information/library/2021-12-27-cov... In the past 7 days, hospitalizations rose by 107% in Florida, matching the rate of COVID19 growth from a week or two ago. We're _already_ seeing the massive increase in hospitalization numbers in Florida. Its a time-delayed compared to case-counts, but its clearly hitting Florida now. What do you think will happen in the next week (when last week had +300% case count) ?? There was a blip in the data for Christmas / Christmas Eve (I dunno if that's because fewer people were working, or if fewer people decided to go into the hospital). But otherwise, the trajectory and hospital usage number-trend is pretty clear and evident already.