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> Florida's death rate has been far higher than the rest of the country due to their decision. According to CDC data, Florida and New York at this time have th

> Florida's death rate has been far higher than the rest of the country due to their decision. According to CDC data, Florida and New York at this time have the same death rate. About 320 excess deaths per 100K. Re: NI, I'm baffled how this is still controversial in the US when the UK, Germany, Israel, etc. Many others recognize it as a valid alternative to vaccination. It absolutely did give them protection against severe illness just like South Africa. It's in the data.

dragontamer 5y ago
This discussion has happened literally every surge. Hospitalizations lag case counts by about 1 to 2 weeks. Deaths further lag hospitalization counts by another 1 to 2 weeks. Omicron arrived in NYC weeks before it arrived in Florida. You can see it evident in the case counts. You have to wait the appropriate amount of time (ex: ~1 to 2 weeks to compare hospitalizations, and ~2 to 4 weeks to compare deaths). ------------ Omicron hasn't hit Texas yet. So in a week or two (or whenever Omicron arrives there), Texans will be making the same time-delayed fallacy that everyone else has made. After 3 or 4 "humps", you'd think that people would be understanding of this time-delay effect by now.
- paul_f 5y ago
  "Just wait two weeks" - this mantra is a bit overplayed? The USA is not monolithic. COVID has proven to be seasonal. Flu season in Texas/Florida are quite different than New York/Michigan.
  - dragontamer 5y ago
    Florida hit +300% cases in the past 5 days. That's too quick to show up in hospitalization statistics yet. I'm expecting that in 2 weeks or so, those people start showing up in hospitals.
    - paul_f 5y ago
      Yep, just wait 2 weeks :-)
      - dragontamer 5y ago
        https://www.miamidade.gov/information/library/2021-12-27-covid-dashboard.pdf https://www.miamidade.gov/information/library/2021-12-27-cov... In the past 7 days, hospitalizations rose by 107% in Florida, matching the rate of COVID19 growth from a week or two ago. We're _already_ seeing the massive increase in hospitalization numbers in Florida. Its a time-delayed compared to case-counts, but its clearly hitting Florida now. What do you think will happen in the next week (when last week had +300% case count) ?? There was a blip in the data for Christmas / Christmas Eve (I dunno if that's because fewer people were working, or if fewer people decided to go into the hospital). But otherwise, the trajectory and hospital usage number-trend is pretty clear and evident already.

dragontamer 5y ago

This discussion has happened literally every surge. Hospitalizations lag case counts by about 1 to 2 weeks. Deaths further lag hospitalization counts by another 1 to 2 weeks. Omicron arrived in NYC weeks before it arrived in Florida. You can see it evident in the case counts. You have to wait the appropriate amount of time (ex: ~1 to 2 weeks to compare hospitalizations, and ~2 to 4 weeks to compare deaths). ------------ Omicron hasn't hit Texas yet. So in a week or two (or whenever Omicron arrives there), Texans will be making the same time-delayed fallacy that everyone else has made. After 3 or 4 "humps", you'd think that people would be understanding of this time-delay effect by now.

paul_f 5y ago
"Just wait two weeks" - this mantra is a bit overplayed? The USA is not monolithic. COVID has proven to be seasonal. Flu season in Texas/Florida are quite different than New York/Michigan.
- dragontamer 5y ago
  Florida hit +300% cases in the past 5 days. That's too quick to show up in hospitalization statistics yet. I'm expecting that in 2 weeks or so, those people start showing up in hospitals.
  - paul_f 5y ago
    Yep, just wait 2 weeks :-)
    - dragontamer 5y ago
      https://www.miamidade.gov/information/library/2021-12-27-covid-dashboard.pdf https://www.miamidade.gov/information/library/2021-12-27-cov... In the past 7 days, hospitalizations rose by 107% in Florida, matching the rate of COVID19 growth from a week or two ago. We're _already_ seeing the massive increase in hospitalization numbers in Florida. Its a time-delayed compared to case-counts, but its clearly hitting Florida now. What do you think will happen in the next week (when last week had +300% case count) ?? There was a blip in the data for Christmas / Christmas Eve (I dunno if that's because fewer people were working, or if fewer people decided to go into the hospital). But otherwise, the trajectory and hospital usage number-trend is pretty clear and evident already.