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From reading the report I think this is addressed p36 that might be because the vaccinated and unvaccinated population are different in other ways : > 1Compari
by eltados 5y ago
From reading the report I think this is addressed p36 that might be because the vaccinated and unvaccinated population are different in other ways :
> 1Comparing case rates among vaccinated and unvaccinated populations should not be used to estimate vaccine effectiveness
against COVID-19 infection. Vaccine effectiveness has been formally estimated from a number of different sources and is
summarised on pages 5 to 11 in this report.
The case rates in the vaccinated and unvaccinated populations are unadjusted crude rates that do not take into account underlying
statistical biases in the data and there are likely to be systematic differences between these 2 population groups. For example:
• people who are fully vaccinated may be more health conscious and therefore more likely to get tested for COVID-19 and
so more likely to be identified as a case (based on the data provided by the NHS Test and Trace)
• many of those who were at the head of the queue for vaccination are those at higher risk from COVID-19 due to their age,
their occupation, their family circumstances or because of underlying health issues
• people who are fully vaccinated and people who are unvaccinated may behave differently, particularly with regard to
social interactions and therefore may have differing levels of exposure to COVID-19
• people who have never been vaccinated are more likely to have caught COVID-19 in the weeks or months before the
period of the cases covered in the report. This gives them some natural immunity to the virus for a few months which may
have contributed to a lower case rate in the past few weeks
- cm2187 5y agoBut all these factors would impact equally covid cases and covid deaths (since the UK definition of a covid death is a covid case who died), so you would still expect a reduction of the % vaccinated from one to the other. And by September all the vaccination curves plateau-ed, so it's unlikely to be a timing issue.
- josephcsible 5y ago> the UK definition of a covid death is a covid case who died This is what a bunch of us have been complaining about all along. Not everyone with COVID who dies actually died because of COVID.
- cm2187 5y agoI thought that but 1) the economist numbers seem to confirm the covid deaths numbers at least for the UK, and 2) you get roughly the same numbers of daily covid deaths [1] by "tested positive in last 28 days" vs "covid on death certificate". So while it is an explanation that would match the data, I don't know if that's true. [1] https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths