5 ms·
You seem to be missing the 10% or so chance that Facebook is obsolete in 5 years time.
by zyfo 15y ago
You seem to be missing the 10% or so chance that Facebook is obsolete in 5 years time.
- ramidarigaz 15y agoHow do you calculate that chance?
- muuh-gnu 15y agoBased on similar fates of previous social networks / instant messengers de jour. Every few years a new generation of users grew bored with one beehive and collectively left it for a new one. IRC/ICQ/AIM/YIM/MSN/Friendster/MySpace couldnt avoid this fate even everybody thought they could. No evidence points out that FB will be able to avoid people getting bored with it after x years.
- deleted 15y ago[deleted]
- basman 15y agoOK, so if you replace his 38% chance of $200B with 28%, the valuation is still $79B. I think the qualitative point about upside potential stands, unless you find it completely unlikely that they will succeed big.