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Almost every country keeps a record of the actual cause of death - the data for month X is usually delayed 2-3 months. Excess deaths are just a summary of the o

Almost every country keeps a record of the actual cause of death - the data for month X is usually delayed 2-3 months. Excess deaths are just a summary of the official statistics. The reason excess deaths are important because they are computed from the total number of deaths in a period (again, if you look at month X, the consolidated numbers are usually stable at month X + 2/3 months) which in turn just match with the number of death certificates issued by an enormous number small independent administrative authorities, so they cannot be easily manipulated by state actors, so they can shut up FUD'ers.

lettergram 5y ago
I have a couple family members working / managing a hospital location for elective surgeries. On an anecdotal level they noticed it enough to make several pleas to the administration to open elective surgeries again. I think it's easy to misconstrue data and we should be cognizant of the fact there are multiple factors. I fully believe covid19 is contributing to deaths, but at the same time, it's by no means the only factor. Here's a simple exercise. It's believed COVID19 was on the loose in the US as early as 2019. https://www.mercurynews.com/2021/06/15/evidence-suggests-covid-19-was-in-us-in-late-2019/ https://www.mercurynews.com/2021/06/15/evidence-suggests-cov... Is it definitive no, but look at when the deaths start. It happens just after the lockdowns are announced -- April 4th is the first week with excess deaths. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm That's two to four weeks after the lockdowns got into full swing. That also happens to coincide with stories of nursing homes being abandoned https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/04/09/california-nursing-home-coronavirus/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/04/09/california-...
- ggrrhh_ta 5y ago
  You do know that there are more than 25 countries in Europe each implementing different lockdowns at different levels of severity at different stages of the COVID, with some countries practically doing no lockdown (like Sweden), whose statistics are collected and aggregated from many tens of thousands of administrative units. Also, deaths from COVID are at least 1 month delayed from infection. As every country wanted to avoid the political cost of an early lockdown, most were delayed until it was unavoidable, so, obviously, cases and deaths increased during the beginning of the lockdown periods. On top of that, lockdowns were not (except in some cities, at the very beginning) really strict. People could go out for grocery shopping, to walk out the dog, to go to and from the work place (even crossing country borders), and there were exceptions to people with certain medical conditions (disabled, kids with disabilities, etc.) and people accompanying them.

lettergram 5y ago

I have a couple family members working / managing a hospital location for elective surgeries. On an anecdotal level they noticed it enough to make several pleas to the administration to open elective surgeries again. I think it's easy to misconstrue data and we should be cognizant of the fact there are multiple factors. I fully believe covid19 is contributing to deaths, but at the same time, it's by no means the only factor. Here's a simple exercise. It's believed COVID19 was on the loose in the US as early as 2019. https://www.mercurynews.com/2021/06/15/evidence-suggests-covid-19-was-in-us-in-late-2019/ https://www.mercurynews.com/2021/06/15/evidence-suggests-cov... Is it definitive no, but look at when the deaths start. It happens just after the lockdowns are announced -- April 4th is the first week with excess deaths. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm That's two to four weeks after the lockdowns got into full swing. That also happens to coincide with stories of nursing homes being abandoned https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/04/09/california-nursing-home-coronavirus/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/04/09/california-...

ggrrhh_ta 5y ago
You do know that there are more than 25 countries in Europe each implementing different lockdowns at different levels of severity at different stages of the COVID, with some countries practically doing no lockdown (like Sweden), whose statistics are collected and aggregated from many tens of thousands of administrative units. Also, deaths from COVID are at least 1 month delayed from infection. As every country wanted to avoid the political cost of an early lockdown, most were delayed until it was unavoidable, so, obviously, cases and deaths increased during the beginning of the lockdown periods. On top of that, lockdowns were not (except in some cities, at the very beginning) really strict. People could go out for grocery shopping, to walk out the dog, to go to and from the work place (even crossing country borders), and there were exceptions to people with certain medical conditions (disabled, kids with disabilities, etc.) and people accompanying them.