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I don't quite understand, how come "expected deaths" are almost the same across the whole year. Winter flu season is known to have a much higher death toll than

by usaphp 5y ago

I don't quite understand, how come "expected deaths" are almost the same across the whole year. Winter flu season is known to have a much higher death toll than summers, I remember reading news of triage tents were set up during winter flu season in new york.

xboxnolifes 5y ago
It's not almost the same though. It's showing a 20% increase during flu season.
bena 5y ago
These are tracking deviations from the norm. It's not that expected deaths are flat across the year, it's that they're just showing the difference. If we expect 50 and see 55, we have 5 excess deaths. If we expect 10 and see 15, we still only have 5 excess.
- usaphp 5y ago
  No, chart has "Total Deaths" and "Expected Deaths" numbers per month. Just hover over the tiles and you will see these values.
  - lijogdfljk 5y ago
    How much should it swing? ~+20% for US from Jan to June 2020 for example, is that not the difference you're looking for?
  - bena 5y ago
    On the chart, "Weekly estimated excess deaths by age group", there's a swing of nearly 10,000 between the lowest and highest of expected deaths. And it seems to be week by week. So while week by week, the change isn't much (and it shouldn't be), overall there's a decent swing. Even in the lower age groups there's a decent swing and it follows the seasons. Even though the numbers across the board are lower. What are you looking for here? What would feel right to you?
woodruffw 5y ago
They aren't. The article's data shows a clear trend towards higher excess deaths in winter months in the United States. But even if the trend wasn't present: a large portion of the US's population lives in regions without 4 "true" seasons or where the flu season is dramatically shorter than in the Northeast. Analyzing individual climate regions within the US and accounting for varying degrees of public health compliance would provide a clearer picture.
kurthr 5y ago
They have subtracted out the average number of deaths on each day from 2015-2019 so that it is flat. If you roll over the orange/red rectangles for each country you can see expected deaths, excess deaths, and % of excess deaths. Long term the US is seeing about 10% excess deaths (mostly in the 40% of unvaccinated) since COVID was introduced. That is why you can also see a negative number of excess deaths lower down the page.

by usaphp 5y ago

xboxnolifes 5y ago

It's not almost the same though. It's showing a 20% increase during flu season.

bena 5y ago

These are tracking deviations from the norm. It's not that expected deaths are flat across the year, it's that they're just showing the difference. If we expect 50 and see 55, we have 5 excess deaths. If we expect 10 and see 15, we still only have 5 excess.

usaphp 5y ago
No, chart has "Total Deaths" and "Expected Deaths" numbers per month. Just hover over the tiles and you will see these values.
- lijogdfljk 5y ago
  How much should it swing? ~+20% for US from Jan to June 2020 for example, is that not the difference you're looking for?
- bena 5y ago
  On the chart, "Weekly estimated excess deaths by age group", there's a swing of nearly 10,000 between the lowest and highest of expected deaths. And it seems to be week by week. So while week by week, the change isn't much (and it shouldn't be), overall there's a decent swing. Even in the lower age groups there's a decent swing and it follows the seasons. Even though the numbers across the board are lower. What are you looking for here? What would feel right to you?

woodruffw 5y ago

They aren't. The article's data shows a clear trend towards higher excess deaths in winter months in the United States. But even if the trend wasn't present: a large portion of the US's population lives in regions without 4 "true" seasons or where the flu season is dramatically shorter than in the Northeast. Analyzing individual climate regions within the US and accounting for varying degrees of public health compliance would provide a clearer picture.

kurthr 5y ago

They have subtracted out the average number of deaths on each day from 2015-2019 so that it is flat. If you roll over the orange/red rectangles for each country you can see expected deaths, excess deaths, and % of excess deaths. Long term the US is seeing about 10% excess deaths (mostly in the 40% of unvaccinated) since COVID was introduced. That is why you can also see a negative number of excess deaths lower down the page.