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> A likely mistake seems to be trying to get this off-the-ground in the US regulatory climate. It'd be much easier to do this in a friendlier regime, more toler

by soneil 5y ago

> A likely mistake seems to be trying to get this off-the-ground in the US regulatory climate. It'd be much easier to do this in a friendlier regime, more tolerant of occasional crashes, get experience, and move into Western markets after the concept is validated. California seems like just about the worst place to start. I'm not sure this is as straight-forward as it sounds. Simply put, there's not many places you're going to find a high cash-density with low regulation. Frankly - and I say this as a European - California is exactly where I'd want to launch this. You have the urban density to make it desirable, the cash-density to make it possible, and the most favourable year-round weather out of anywhere else I can think that'd make the list.

blagie 5y ago
Let me give a few examples of decent places to launch: 1) Dubai 2) Doha 3) Maybe Manama 4) Maybe Riyadh Upsides: - "Regulatory regime" means that you talk to the royal family. This is a surprisingly sane and reasonable process. - Plenty of money to go around; people looking for things to invest into when the oil runs out - Better weather than California - Culture is more tolerant of occasional crashes - Cash-rich populations who would pay for this sort of thing The market isn't as large, but for a pilot, you don't want large. For large markets, though, I can think of a few cities in Asia which would be ideal for scaling up. As a footnote: Regulation isn't a question of low versus high. It's a question of easy versus hard. I worked in a highly-regulated field, and we did field testing in a small European country where the standards were probably higher than the US, but the process was much more streamlined. Approvals were done by talking to one expert who either gave a thumbs up, thumbs down, or told you what you needed to change. In the US, the process would have taken years of pushing paperwork, and a mechanical bureaucracy is less suited to evaluate safety than an expert. A multiyear process isn't necessarily any more robust than a fast one.

by soneil 5y ago

blagie 5y ago

Let me give a few examples of decent places to launch: 1) Dubai 2) Doha 3) Maybe Manama 4) Maybe Riyadh Upsides: - "Regulatory regime" means that you talk to the royal family. This is a surprisingly sane and reasonable process. - Plenty of money to go around; people looking for things to invest into when the oil runs out - Better weather than California - Culture is more tolerant of occasional crashes - Cash-rich populations who would pay for this sort of thing The market isn't as large, but for a pilot, you don't want large. For large markets, though, I can think of a few cities in Asia which would be ideal for scaling up. As a footnote: Regulation isn't a question of low versus high. It's a question of easy versus hard. I worked in a highly-regulated field, and we did field testing in a small European country where the standards were probably higher than the US, but the process was much more streamlined. Approvals were done by talking to one expert who either gave a thumbs up, thumbs down, or told you what you needed to change. In the US, the process would have taken years of pushing paperwork, and a mechanical bureaucracy is less suited to evaluate safety than an expert. A multiyear process isn't necessarily any more robust than a fast one.