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There's another argument against fixed currencies like bitcoin that should resonate with the hackernews crowd, and it's this: A currency with inflationary pres
by alenlpeacock 15y ago
There's another argument against fixed currencies like bitcoin that should resonate with the hackernews crowd, and it's this:
A currency with inflationary pressure incentivizes investments into new enterprises. A currency with deflationary pressure, instead, discourages investment outside of banking.
Here's why. With a slight inflation, money slowly loses value. Even if you put it in the bank and earn interest, it loses value over time. So the rational thing to do, if you have a lot of excess money, is to find places to put it where it outperforms inflation, where it has a chance of not evaporating over time.
With deflation, money is instead guaranteed to be more valuable tomorrow than it is today. Sure, you could still try to invest some of it to try to outperform the gain you get from deflation, but it would be completely rational to just stick all of it in the bank, and live the good life forever, as your money automatically becomes more money (because its buying power increases), every day.
Why is there so much money managed by VC and Angel funds? While not the only reason, I'd claim it has a lot to do with inflation.
And, of course, I'm making things more b&w than they really are. Both massive inflation and massive deflation are really bad things. Currency that stays largely stable, or that deflates/inflates slowly over time, seems to work out fine.
- BarkMore 15y agoA counter-argument is that people invest in new enterprises even when the banking real interest rate is positive.
- sneak 15y agoTo paraphrase jwz (like that's never been done before), "When the rebuttal to your argument is 'The Industrial Revolution', generally that means that you've lost the argument." :)
- BarkMore 15y agoMy snark decoder is broken. Please explain the parent comment.
- alenlpeacock 15y agoDeflation doesn't remove all incentive to invest, but it does destroy the "gotta keep ahead of inflation" one. I meant to be more explicit about that when I said, "you could still try to invest some of it to try to outperform the gain you get from deflation."
- caf 15y agoAhh, but they only invest in new enterprises that they feel are likely to significantly out-perform the prevailing real interest rate (risk free rate of return). Significant deflation raises the bar, by putting a floor under the risk free rate of return.