2 ms·

This article seems built on a foundation of 20/20 hindsight. It would be more credible if it pointed out examples that haven't (yet?) dropped dramatically.

hn_throwaway_99 5y ago
For the life of me, though, I recall looking at Peloton's valuation before it crashed and thought "Does Peloton think every household in the US is going to own 2 bikes and a family subscription?" More than "Ponzi stocks", though, in the present day and age I really feel these are just basically just a type of meme stock. I define a meme stock as one where investors are chasing momentum where they know it will eventually crash, but they're really just betting they'll be able to get out before everyone else. Hertz was perhaps the most famous example, where the stock was bid up even though it was already in bankruptcy proceedings and was inevitably going to $0. This is the thing that I feel has pretty fundamentally changed in stock investing in the last ~5 or so years. During the original .com boom, many investors really did believe all those worthless .coms would eventually make a profit (and, indeed, many of those .coms were just too early - Pets.com famously crashed and burned, but Chewie is a multi-billion dollar business). But these days I feel like there is a new type of speculation, more like video gaming, where hardly anyone believes a particular company has good long term potential at a sky-high valuation, but that if there is a chance a stock can be pumped on wallstreetbets et al long enough that there is a valid short term play.
- shukantpal 5y ago
  > Hertz was perhaps the most famous example, where the stock was bid up even though it was already in bankruptcy proceedings and was inevitably going to $0. Hertz shareholders did receive a material payout after Apollo's debtor-in-possession takeover of the company. https://www.wsj.com/articles/hertzs-complex-shareholder-payout-explained-11623358891 https://www.wsj.com/articles/hertzs-complex-shareholder-payo...
  - panarky 5y ago
    >> inevitably going to $0 Hertz common stock is currently worth more than $11 billion, virtually unchanged from a year ago. Clearly, there's nothing "inevitable" about bankruptcy proceedings.
smnrchrds 5y ago
I don't know if they have already dropped or not (and if they are public yet or not), but all meal kit and food delivery companies fall into the same category: they just had the best market of the century and it's going to be downhill for them from now on.
fny 5y ago
The author has been calling this and the entire ARKK basket the ponzi sector since the COVID stimulus took off.

hn_throwaway_99 5y ago

For the life of me, though, I recall looking at Peloton's valuation before it crashed and thought "Does Peloton think every household in the US is going to own 2 bikes and a family subscription?" More than "Ponzi stocks", though, in the present day and age I really feel these are just basically just a type of meme stock. I define a meme stock as one where investors are chasing momentum where they know it will eventually crash, but they're really just betting they'll be able to get out before everyone else. Hertz was perhaps the most famous example, where the stock was bid up even though it was already in bankruptcy proceedings and was inevitably going to $0. This is the thing that I feel has pretty fundamentally changed in stock investing in the last ~5 or so years. During the original .com boom, many investors really did believe all those worthless .coms would eventually make a profit (and, indeed, many of those .coms were just too early - Pets.com famously crashed and burned, but Chewie is a multi-billion dollar business). But these days I feel like there is a new type of speculation, more like video gaming, where hardly anyone believes a particular company has good long term potential at a sky-high valuation, but that if there is a chance a stock can be pumped on wallstreetbets et al long enough that there is a valid short term play.

shukantpal 5y ago
> Hertz was perhaps the most famous example, where the stock was bid up even though it was already in bankruptcy proceedings and was inevitably going to $0. Hertz shareholders did receive a material payout after Apollo's debtor-in-possession takeover of the company. https://www.wsj.com/articles/hertzs-complex-shareholder-payout-explained-11623358891 https://www.wsj.com/articles/hertzs-complex-shareholder-payo...
- panarky 5y ago
  >> inevitably going to $0 Hertz common stock is currently worth more than $11 billion, virtually unchanged from a year ago. Clearly, there's nothing "inevitable" about bankruptcy proceedings.

smnrchrds 5y ago

I don't know if they have already dropped or not (and if they are public yet or not), but all meal kit and food delivery companies fall into the same category: they just had the best market of the century and it's going to be downhill for them from now on.

fny 5y ago

The author has been calling this and the entire ARKK basket the ponzi sector since the COVID stimulus took off.