5 ms·

CDC best guess mortality risk for his age group is 500/1000000 if he gets an infection. I would say risk probably not outweighing the benefit if it doesn’t prev

CDC best guess mortality risk for his age group is 500/1000000 if he gets an infection. I would say risk probably not outweighing the benefit if it doesn’t prevent infection outright. Source: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena...

sudosysgen 5y ago
That is a laughable analysis. You are comparing the risk of death to the risk of a serious side effect. Why not compare apples to apples and compare the risk of heart complications requiring hospitalization (a fraction of the myocraditis and pericarditis cases caused by the vaccine) to the hospitalization rate of infection? You can normalize that by the 75% efficacy against Omicron if you want.
- mrhands556 5y ago
  Who says the vaccine prevents heart complications from infection? All the statistics I’ve seen compare mainly mortality. From a pure risk vs reward of vaccine vs no vaccine, measuring mortality seems reasonable. When in history have we vaccinated to prevent side effects?
  - kuhewa 5y ago
    You are asking when in history we vaccinated to prevent infectious disease induced morbidity?
    - mrhands556 5y ago
      When have we vaccinated to prevent infectious disease induced side effects excluding morbidity.
      - kuhewa 5y ago
        What do you mean by 'side effects' of infectious disease excluding morbidity? Positive side effects of infection?
      - dragonwriter 5y ago
        > When have we vaccinated to prevent infectious disease induced side effects excluding morbidity. Whenever we vaccinate to prevent mortality; generally we vaccinate to mitigate both morbidity and mortality from a disease.
  - sudosysgen 5y ago
    So what is the mortality rate of the vaccine? Because this is the myocarditis rate, and the vast majority of cases didn't even require hospitalization. If you want to compare mortality rates, share a link. And yes, the virus prevents heart complications from infection, because it prevents symptomatic infection.
    - mrhands556 5y ago
      It’s pretty evident at this point it doesn’t prevent symptomatic infection. Death rate on both is close to 0. My point is if the vaccine doesn’t prevent infection (protecting other people) the vaccine risk vs reward is negligible for this age group. It should be purely up to the person to make their own decision. Not anyone else’s. Treat it like the flu shot. I was vaccinated when I saw 90% at preventing infections, but now that’s been disproven I’ll call it how I see it. I’m moving on.
      - sudosysgen 5y ago
        3 doses of pfizer seen to have more thab 75% protection against even Omicron. It was 90% before mutations for two doses The death rate on both are very low but much higher for the virus. However, the risk of hospitalization is significant with the virus, and much, much higher than with the vaccine. I don't want to be hospitalized. That's a very bad time. The people that may die because I took up a hospital spot probably agree. The flu doesn't threaten to collapse the healthcare system without vaccines. COVID does.
        Izkata 5y ago
        > The flu doesn't threaten to collapse the healthcare system without vaccines. Yeah it does, even with vaccines... (2014) https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/local/flu-patients-fill-north-texas-hospital-beds/205638/ https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/local/flu-patients-fill-north-te... (2015) https://abcnews.go.com/Health/flu-closes-schools-flusters-hospitals-nationwide/story?id=28245734 https://abcnews.go.com/Health/flu-closes-schools-flusters-ho... (2016) https://www.theguardian.com/society/2016/mar/10/nhs-hospitals-overwhelmed-patients-could-die-top-doctor https://www.theguardian.com/society/2016/mar/10/nhs-hospital... (2017) https://www.france24.com/en/20170111-french-hospitals-cancel-operations-amid-brutal-flu-epidemic https://www.france24.com/en/20170111-french-hospitals-cancel... (2018) https://time.com/5107984/hospitals-handling-burden-flu-patients/ https://time.com/5107984/hospitals-handling-burden-flu-patie... It's a pretty consistent pattern: Every flu season, hospitals are overwhelmed by the flu. Those links are just from date-range searches and copying the first result (hence bouncing around countries); each year had plenty more from other countries.
  - Izkata 5y ago
    > When in history have we vaccinated to prevent side effects? Polio. * Around 72% have no symptoms. * Around 25% have flu-like symptoms. * The remaining 3% develop serious symptoms/damage. * Paralytic polio hits around 0.5%, of which around 5-10% die when the paralysis reaches the lungs. So including all infections, not just paralytic polio as you'll find in most searches (where they give the 5-10% statistic), the death rate was around 0.01% - 0.025% https://www.cdc.gov/polio/what-is-polio/index.htm https://www.cdc.gov/polio/what-is-polio/index.htm

sudosysgen 5y ago

That is a laughable analysis. You are comparing the risk of death to the risk of a serious side effect. Why not compare apples to apples and compare the risk of heart complications requiring hospitalization (a fraction of the myocraditis and pericarditis cases caused by the vaccine) to the hospitalization rate of infection? You can normalize that by the 75% efficacy against Omicron if you want.

mrhands556 5y ago
Who says the vaccine prevents heart complications from infection? All the statistics I’ve seen compare mainly mortality. From a pure risk vs reward of vaccine vs no vaccine, measuring mortality seems reasonable. When in history have we vaccinated to prevent side effects?
- kuhewa 5y ago
  You are asking when in history we vaccinated to prevent infectious disease induced morbidity?
  - mrhands556 5y ago
    When have we vaccinated to prevent infectious disease induced side effects excluding morbidity.
    - kuhewa 5y ago
      What do you mean by 'side effects' of infectious disease excluding morbidity? Positive side effects of infection?
    - dragonwriter 5y ago
      > When have we vaccinated to prevent infectious disease induced side effects excluding morbidity. Whenever we vaccinate to prevent mortality; generally we vaccinate to mitigate both morbidity and mortality from a disease.
- sudosysgen 5y ago
  So what is the mortality rate of the vaccine? Because this is the myocarditis rate, and the vast majority of cases didn't even require hospitalization. If you want to compare mortality rates, share a link. And yes, the virus prevents heart complications from infection, because it prevents symptomatic infection.
  - mrhands556 5y ago
    It’s pretty evident at this point it doesn’t prevent symptomatic infection. Death rate on both is close to 0. My point is if the vaccine doesn’t prevent infection (protecting other people) the vaccine risk vs reward is negligible for this age group. It should be purely up to the person to make their own decision. Not anyone else’s. Treat it like the flu shot. I was vaccinated when I saw 90% at preventing infections, but now that’s been disproven I’ll call it how I see it. I’m moving on.
    - sudosysgen 5y ago
      3 doses of pfizer seen to have more thab 75% protection against even Omicron. It was 90% before mutations for two doses The death rate on both are very low but much higher for the virus. However, the risk of hospitalization is significant with the virus, and much, much higher than with the vaccine. I don't want to be hospitalized. That's a very bad time. The people that may die because I took up a hospital spot probably agree. The flu doesn't threaten to collapse the healthcare system without vaccines. COVID does.
      - Izkata 5y ago
        > The flu doesn't threaten to collapse the healthcare system without vaccines. Yeah it does, even with vaccines... (2014) https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/local/flu-patients-fill-north-texas-hospital-beds/205638/ https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/local/flu-patients-fill-north-te... (2015) https://abcnews.go.com/Health/flu-closes-schools-flusters-hospitals-nationwide/story?id=28245734 https://abcnews.go.com/Health/flu-closes-schools-flusters-ho... (2016) https://www.theguardian.com/society/2016/mar/10/nhs-hospitals-overwhelmed-patients-could-die-top-doctor https://www.theguardian.com/society/2016/mar/10/nhs-hospital... (2017) https://www.france24.com/en/20170111-french-hospitals-cancel-operations-amid-brutal-flu-epidemic https://www.france24.com/en/20170111-french-hospitals-cancel... (2018) https://time.com/5107984/hospitals-handling-burden-flu-patients/ https://time.com/5107984/hospitals-handling-burden-flu-patie... It's a pretty consistent pattern: Every flu season, hospitals are overwhelmed by the flu. Those links are just from date-range searches and copying the first result (hence bouncing around countries); each year had plenty more from other countries.
- Izkata 5y ago
  > When in history have we vaccinated to prevent side effects? Polio. * Around 72% have no symptoms. * Around 25% have flu-like symptoms. * The remaining 3% develop serious symptoms/damage. * Paralytic polio hits around 0.5%, of which around 5-10% die when the paralysis reaches the lungs. So including all infections, not just paralytic polio as you'll find in most searches (where they give the 5-10% statistic), the death rate was around 0.01% - 0.025% https://www.cdc.gov/polio/what-is-polio/index.htm https://www.cdc.gov/polio/what-is-polio/index.htm