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If the modeling is this good and this accurate, it would be helpful if consensus predictions were published in a prominent outlet that is easy for the public to
by haberman 5y ago
If the modeling is this good and this accurate, it would be helpful if consensus predictions were published in a prominent outlet that is easy for the public to consume and compare against empirical data as it comes in. I think this is particularly true if you can make reliable predictions about specific regions.
This would help build credibility. Right now, it seems like many are quick to attribute any kind of unfortunate weather to climate change, even if it leads to ultimately contradictory claims.
For example, a few months ago Scott Alexander posed the question of whether climate change could reduce the number of cold-related deaths. In the comments for that article (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28960588 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28960588), many countered by saying that climate change is actually predicted to make winters colder on average, and/or increase the number of extreme cold weather events. It was no help that you can find news articles from prominent outlets that appear to make contradictory claims on this point (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28963655 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28963655).
It took a fair amount of digging into IPCC reports to determine that this appears to be incorrect; the consensus prediction is warming winters (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28963266 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28963266). But in the thread we couldn't come to agreement on whether the consensus view predicts more or fewer extreme cold events.