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I suspect there’s no single cause (as is the case for all complex issues), but I’ll just respond to those saying that the 1m+ excess deaths can’t be a cause bec

by jl6 5y ago

I suspect there’s no single cause (as is the case for all complex issues), but I’ll just respond to those saying that the 1m+ excess deaths can’t be a cause because those people were predominantly retired: you need to consider the second-order effects. When the 70+ population dies, dealing with the consequences is tough, both emotionally and organizationally. It’s totally plausible that their working age children need to take extended time off work to deal with grief and estate wind-up. And those who inherited substantial estates may not see the need to return to work - at least not right away. Their own retirement plans may have been effectively moved forward.

amanaplanacanal 5y ago
Yep. I think a big chunk of people decided to retire early. This isn’t predominantly young people leaving the labor force. It’s older people looking around and realizing life is short.
- LinuxBender 5y ago
  At least anecdotally I can agree. Several of my coworkers and I retired early. In hind-sight I should have done it sooner.
- CubsFan1060 5y ago
  This has some interesting numbers: https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/15/economy/labor-force-retirement-great-resignation/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/15/economy/labor-force-retiremen... "Nearly 70% of the 5 million people who left the labor force during the pandemic are older than 55, according to researchers from Goldman Sachs, and many of them aren't looking to return" I suspect that many of those left good jobs. And then everyone essentially took a step up in jobs. So for the lowest level, there just aren't people to fill those jobs now.
deleted 5y ago
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mberning 5y ago
Thank you for this response. I completely agree and get tired of the reddit tier “lol just pay more” hot takes. I think if paying more were the solution the labor shortage would be over quite quickly. Around where I live wages have not only gone up for menial jobs, but companies are offering large sign on bonuses, guaranteed raise after x days, daily pay, and “job on the spot” interview slots every day. Somebody can walk in off the street and get a job at the local gas station making $15+/hr, a bonus, and a guaranteed raise if they stick with it. And yet they still cannot find anybody to work. Paying more might solve the problem on a micro scale, but at a macro level the shortage will remain. Unless there are a huge number of people sitting on the bench willing to get up at some specific threshold. But as you point out for many people there might not be any amount that would motivate them to get off the bench at this moment.
- DarylZero 5y ago
  > Somebody can walk in off the street and get a job at the local gas station making $15+/hr, a bonus, and a guaranteed raise if they stick with it. And yet they still cannot find anybody to work What do you mean? They can't find anybody to interview? Or they won't hire anyone they interview?

by jl6 5y ago

amanaplanacanal 5y ago

Yep. I think a big chunk of people decided to retire early. This isn’t predominantly young people leaving the labor force. It’s older people looking around and realizing life is short.

LinuxBender 5y ago
At least anecdotally I can agree. Several of my coworkers and I retired early. In hind-sight I should have done it sooner.
CubsFan1060 5y ago
This has some interesting numbers: https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/15/economy/labor-force-retirement-great-resignation/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/15/economy/labor-force-retiremen... "Nearly 70% of the 5 million people who left the labor force during the pandemic are older than 55, according to researchers from Goldman Sachs, and many of them aren't looking to return" I suspect that many of those left good jobs. And then everyone essentially took a step up in jobs. So for the lowest level, there just aren't people to fill those jobs now.

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

mberning 5y ago

Thank you for this response. I completely agree and get tired of the reddit tier “lol just pay more” hot takes. I think if paying more were the solution the labor shortage would be over quite quickly. Around where I live wages have not only gone up for menial jobs, but companies are offering large sign on bonuses, guaranteed raise after x days, daily pay, and “job on the spot” interview slots every day. Somebody can walk in off the street and get a job at the local gas station making $15+/hr, a bonus, and a guaranteed raise if they stick with it. And yet they still cannot find anybody to work. Paying more might solve the problem on a micro scale, but at a macro level the shortage will remain. Unless there are a huge number of people sitting on the bench willing to get up at some specific threshold. But as you point out for many people there might not be any amount that would motivate them to get off the bench at this moment.

DarylZero 5y ago
> Somebody can walk in off the street and get a job at the local gas station making $15+/hr, a bonus, and a guaranteed raise if they stick with it. And yet they still cannot find anybody to work What do you mean? They can't find anybody to interview? Or they won't hire anyone they interview?