5 ms·

Nearly a million adults died from COVID too, I'm sure that affects the labor supply. How many millions of people are we "short" in the labor supply precisely?

TeeMassive 5y ago
800k to be more precise. And they're not working age adults, the vast majority of covid deaths happened in elderly population (70+). And even the 800k figure is disputed as Covid being the primary cause of deathin all of those.
- fragmede 5y ago
  The 800k is disputed as being far too low. Including for excess deaths that aren't directly attributed to Covid, the count is well over a million US deaths during the pandemic.
  - TeeMassive 5y ago
    > The 800k is disputed as being far too low. Interesting, but since it is said without anything to back it up it can also be as easily dismissed. I based my data on https://usafacts.org/visualizations/coronavirus-covid-19-spread-map/ https://usafacts.org/visualizations/coronavirus-covid-19-spr... > Including for excess deaths that aren't directly attributed to Covid, the count is well over a million US deaths during the pandemic. Correlation doesn't mean causation. Isolation also creates excess deaths. Economic hardships also creates excess deaths. Stress and anxiety create also excess deaths. Alcohol and drugs also create excess deaths. All of these increased since the pandemic.
    - crooked-v 5y ago
      The exact cause doesn't really matter in this context. The point is that more than that have died compared to a normal year.
      - TeeMassive 5y ago
        > The exact cause doesn't really matter in this context. It does when you're doing risk and cost analysis > The point is that more than that have died compared to a normal year. Deaths do not exist in a vacuum. They are caused by something.
- trialtrial1 5y ago
  this is both imprecise and inaccurate - excess deaths are or will very soon be 1M+ in the US
- cpursley 5y ago
  Be quite with those statistics and mask the children because ... emotions.
  - trialtrial1 5y ago
    quiet*
- gilbetron 5y ago
  CDC estimated deaths are about 920k: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burd...
lepus 5y ago
More important are the millions of working-age Americans dealing with sequelae from acute covid illness, aka long covid, who are now unable to hold down a full time job. This issue has been grossly neglected because the majority of medical professionals have been largely dismissive of it.
- Yoofie 5y ago
  On what basis do you believe long covid is significantly causing adults to not hold down a full time job?
  - lrem 5y ago
    The scattered anecdotes are scary: brain fog that's bad enough to prevent you from doing any mechanical or intellectual labour. The initial data was also scary, but I never saw anything with a particularly convincing survey size.
    - Yoofie 5y ago
      What initial data?
      - lrem 5y ago
        Near the beginning of the pandemics I've seen percentages of confirmed infections presenting symptoms X weeks after diagnosis. It seemed to not die off. But it both topped at a not too long interval and didn't see that many cases yet.
  - Bud 5y ago
    That data is not hard to find: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7036a1.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7036a1.htm https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.1003773 https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/jo... https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/patient-safety-outcomes/estimates-of-americans-with-long-covid-19-per-state.html https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/patient-safety-outcome...
onlyrealcuzzo 5y ago
Most of these labor articles are about participation - which is a percentage. Unless it killed laborers disproportionately, and spared non-laborers - absolute deaths is a non-issue for participation. It's obviously an issue for the total labor force. That said, >75% of deaths occured in 65+ [1]. ~200k*.61 = ~122k people in a workforce of 165M is a rounding error. .61 = labor force participation rate [2] Additionally, almost 85% of deaths occured in 55+, and participation for 55-65 is already pretty low (~38%). Articles would've stated the obvious (that people died) if it was a major cause. Almost 3M dropped out of the labor force. Deaths probably account for less 4% of that. [1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/1191568/reported-deaths-from-covid-by-age-us/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1191568/reported-deaths-... [2] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART
- danaris 5y ago
  > Unless it killed laborers disproportionately, and spared non-laborers This is actually highly likely, given the facts we know. 1) It is highly transmissible when people are in close quarters for longer than a few minutes 2) Many businesses forced their employees to continue working with no PPE, no adequate ventilation, and no paid sick time Combine these things, and you get a very high likelihood of increased transmission among the most vulnerable of laborers—which thus increases their likelihood of death in proportion.
  - rhexs 5y ago
    Ah, yes, I’m sure the obese geriatric day laborers were hit extraordinarily hard by this.
refurb 5y ago
Your comment piqued my interest in the death stats. The CDC has a nice table about half way down the page that compares rates between 2019 and 2020. What's interesting is not that Covid spiked, but the following causes of death also changed significantly in 2020: - heart disease +5% - cancer -2% - unintentional injuries +20% - stroke +5% - chronic lower respiratory disease -6% - Alzhiemer's disease +10% - diabetes +15% https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/deaths.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/deaths.htm

TeeMassive 5y ago

800k to be more precise. And they're not working age adults, the vast majority of covid deaths happened in elderly population (70+). And even the 800k figure is disputed as Covid being the primary cause of deathin all of those.

fragmede 5y ago
The 800k is disputed as being far too low. Including for excess deaths that aren't directly attributed to Covid, the count is well over a million US deaths during the pandemic.
- TeeMassive 5y ago
  > The 800k is disputed as being far too low. Interesting, but since it is said without anything to back it up it can also be as easily dismissed. I based my data on https://usafacts.org/visualizations/coronavirus-covid-19-spread-map/ https://usafacts.org/visualizations/coronavirus-covid-19-spr... > Including for excess deaths that aren't directly attributed to Covid, the count is well over a million US deaths during the pandemic. Correlation doesn't mean causation. Isolation also creates excess deaths. Economic hardships also creates excess deaths. Stress and anxiety create also excess deaths. Alcohol and drugs also create excess deaths. All of these increased since the pandemic.
  - crooked-v 5y ago
    The exact cause doesn't really matter in this context. The point is that more than that have died compared to a normal year.
    - TeeMassive 5y ago
      > The exact cause doesn't really matter in this context. It does when you're doing risk and cost analysis > The point is that more than that have died compared to a normal year. Deaths do not exist in a vacuum. They are caused by something.
trialtrial1 5y ago
this is both imprecise and inaccurate - excess deaths are or will very soon be 1M+ in the US
cpursley 5y ago
Be quite with those statistics and mask the children because ... emotions.
- trialtrial1 5y ago
  quiet*
gilbetron 5y ago
CDC estimated deaths are about 920k: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burd...

lepus 5y ago

More important are the millions of working-age Americans dealing with sequelae from acute covid illness, aka long covid, who are now unable to hold down a full time job. This issue has been grossly neglected because the majority of medical professionals have been largely dismissive of it.

Yoofie 5y ago
On what basis do you believe long covid is significantly causing adults to not hold down a full time job?
- lrem 5y ago
  The scattered anecdotes are scary: brain fog that's bad enough to prevent you from doing any mechanical or intellectual labour. The initial data was also scary, but I never saw anything with a particularly convincing survey size.
  - Yoofie 5y ago
    What initial data?
    - lrem 5y ago
      Near the beginning of the pandemics I've seen percentages of confirmed infections presenting symptoms X weeks after diagnosis. It seemed to not die off. But it both topped at a not too long interval and didn't see that many cases yet.
- Bud 5y ago
  That data is not hard to find: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7036a1.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7036a1.htm https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.1003773 https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/jo... https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/patient-safety-outcomes/estimates-of-americans-with-long-covid-19-per-state.html https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/patient-safety-outcome...

onlyrealcuzzo 5y ago

Most of these labor articles are about participation - which is a percentage. Unless it killed laborers disproportionately, and spared non-laborers - absolute deaths is a non-issue for participation. It's obviously an issue for the total labor force. That said, >75% of deaths occured in 65+ [1]. ~200k*.61 = ~122k people in a workforce of 165M is a rounding error. .61 = labor force participation rate [2] Additionally, almost 85% of deaths occured in 55+, and participation for 55-65 is already pretty low (~38%). Articles would've stated the obvious (that people died) if it was a major cause. Almost 3M dropped out of the labor force. Deaths probably account for less 4% of that. [1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/1191568/reported-deaths-from-covid-by-age-us/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1191568/reported-deaths-... [2] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART

danaris 5y ago
> Unless it killed laborers disproportionately, and spared non-laborers This is actually highly likely, given the facts we know. 1) It is highly transmissible when people are in close quarters for longer than a few minutes 2) Many businesses forced their employees to continue working with no PPE, no adequate ventilation, and no paid sick time Combine these things, and you get a very high likelihood of increased transmission among the most vulnerable of laborers—which thus increases their likelihood of death in proportion.
- rhexs 5y ago
  Ah, yes, I’m sure the obese geriatric day laborers were hit extraordinarily hard by this.

refurb 5y ago

Your comment piqued my interest in the death stats. The CDC has a nice table about half way down the page that compares rates between 2019 and 2020. What's interesting is not that Covid spiked, but the following causes of death also changed significantly in 2020: - heart disease +5% - cancer -2% - unintentional injuries +20% - stroke +5% - chronic lower respiratory disease -6% - Alzhiemer's disease +10% - diabetes +15% https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/deaths.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/deaths.htm