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I doubt the science is infeasible. We do have working fusion reactors. Some time in the next few hundred years we will surely figure it out, if we don't go exti

I doubt the science is infeasible. We do have working fusion reactors. Some time in the next few hundred years we will surely figure it out, if we don't go extinct first. The economics are much more likely to make it infeasible. If fusion power is forever more expensive than solar+storage is there any point to it? Even fission has been priced out of the market and I never heard anybody claim that fusion will be cheaper than fission.

colechristensen 5y ago
Electricity prices have recently skyrocketed and generally have bounced around a lot. Right now fission is quite economically viable, blue that will continue in the future depends on how fossil fuels will be priced and how solar power grows. Fusion will definitely have big up front costs but the fuel costs could be as low as essentially zero or quite high depending on the tech that makes it, and who can say what the maintenance costs might be. How much energy might be produced for how much operating cost is a really open ended question and there is a wide range of possible answers.
- ncmncm 5y ago
  Electricity prices are plummeting along with the prices for solar and wind power production systems. Storage cost is falling even faster.
  - colechristensen 5y ago
    Then you haven’t been keeping up with the news. European electricity prices hit record highs just a few days ago and have been growing enormously all year. Worldwide oil prices have been going way up, we’re in a much different energy market than at have been for quite a while.
    - ncmncm 5y ago
      Europe is not the world. Oil prices are rising as production falls. That is falling because exploration is not expected to pay off. It is a fundamental mistake to confuse short-term fluctuations with trends.
      - colechristensen 5y ago
        Energy prices are not plummeting globally, the drop that did happen can primarily be put squarely on america developing enormous new oil resources which broke the opec cartel which couldn’t get its act together in the new environment (and was trying to bankrupt the more expensive NA oil by dumping below production cost for tar sands). Geopolitics and world events have ended this period of cheap oil which is still fluctuating but the contribution of wind and solar is just not big enough yet to dominate the energy market.
        ncmncm 5y ago
        Prices for new generating capacity are plunging globally. Prices to users of power will follow as they are built out.
      - specialist 5y ago
        Yes and: I concluded "peak oil" happened once Big Oil stopped investing in infrastructure, like refineries, choosing to extract as much wealth as possible on the way down. In all these food fights, I wish more of us arm chair pundits paid attention to what the major players were actually doing (finance, investment), vs taking cues from other pundits.
    - dredmorbius 5y ago
      You and ncmncm are talking past one another. The long-term secular cost of electricity from renewables has been falling, with a trend that can be projected back at least 50 years. The incremental improvements are slow, but very steady. I suspect this is what ncmncm is referring to. In time, that cost curve will make all but the most essential of fuel-based generation, including nuclear fission, economically infeasible. Yes, storage needs further development. That's also been coming along, and I believe we have sufficient options to address most needs. I suspect you're referring to recent fluctuations in grid costs within Europe, and yes, that's also a reality, but a short-term one. Both of you would do well to actively listen to the other, and clarify points of disagreement and/or misunderstanding.
      - lazide 5y ago
        Eh. Assuming energy costs will continue to drop indefinitely (at the kwh delivered, overall) despite significant recent evidence from one of the top renewable energy markets is it’s own type of fallacy no? Renewables have a much more complicated cost structure due to production timing issues and capacity issues, that show up especially during winter in a cold climate - which is exactly the issue Europe is having. They keep getting papered over by advocates, but having had to deal with this directly by building my own off grid energy system - at some point you have to deal with it or you freeze. Indirectly, I think they’re both touching on different elements of the problem and using incomplete data from both perspectives.
        specialist 5y ago
        aka Transmission. That's what HVDC will fix. The challenge in the USA is policy, not technical. I know nothing about EU, but assume they have a similar rat's nest of red tape. FWIW, David Roberts' Volts newsletter covers the USA-centric stuff. https://www.volts.wtf/p/volts-podcast-the-challenges-of-building https://www.volts.wtf/p/volts-podcast-the-challenges-of-buil... [2021/08/27] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-voltage_direct_current https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-voltage_direct_current > they’re both touching on different elements There is no silver bullet. We need more of everything, there's always more to the story.
nextaccountic 5y ago
> If fusion power is forever more expensive than solar+storage is there any point to it? Yes, because fusion has the potential of harnessing much more power in a relatively small power plant. Even if it's more expensive, it's TWs you wouldn't otherwise get.

colechristensen 5y ago

Electricity prices have recently skyrocketed and generally have bounced around a lot. Right now fission is quite economically viable, blue that will continue in the future depends on how fossil fuels will be priced and how solar power grows. Fusion will definitely have big up front costs but the fuel costs could be as low as essentially zero or quite high depending on the tech that makes it, and who can say what the maintenance costs might be. How much energy might be produced for how much operating cost is a really open ended question and there is a wide range of possible answers.

ncmncm 5y ago
Electricity prices are plummeting along with the prices for solar and wind power production systems. Storage cost is falling even faster.
- colechristensen 5y ago
  Then you haven’t been keeping up with the news. European electricity prices hit record highs just a few days ago and have been growing enormously all year. Worldwide oil prices have been going way up, we’re in a much different energy market than at have been for quite a while.
  - ncmncm 5y ago
    Europe is not the world. Oil prices are rising as production falls. That is falling because exploration is not expected to pay off. It is a fundamental mistake to confuse short-term fluctuations with trends.
    - colechristensen 5y ago
      Energy prices are not plummeting globally, the drop that did happen can primarily be put squarely on america developing enormous new oil resources which broke the opec cartel which couldn’t get its act together in the new environment (and was trying to bankrupt the more expensive NA oil by dumping below production cost for tar sands). Geopolitics and world events have ended this period of cheap oil which is still fluctuating but the contribution of wind and solar is just not big enough yet to dominate the energy market.
      - ncmncm 5y ago
        Prices for new generating capacity are plunging globally. Prices to users of power will follow as they are built out.
    - specialist 5y ago
      Yes and: I concluded "peak oil" happened once Big Oil stopped investing in infrastructure, like refineries, choosing to extract as much wealth as possible on the way down. In all these food fights, I wish more of us arm chair pundits paid attention to what the major players were actually doing (finance, investment), vs taking cues from other pundits.
  - dredmorbius 5y ago
    You and ncmncm are talking past one another. The long-term secular cost of electricity from renewables has been falling, with a trend that can be projected back at least 50 years. The incremental improvements are slow, but very steady. I suspect this is what ncmncm is referring to. In time, that cost curve will make all but the most essential of fuel-based generation, including nuclear fission, economically infeasible. Yes, storage needs further development. That's also been coming along, and I believe we have sufficient options to address most needs. I suspect you're referring to recent fluctuations in grid costs within Europe, and yes, that's also a reality, but a short-term one. Both of you would do well to actively listen to the other, and clarify points of disagreement and/or misunderstanding.
    - lazide 5y ago
      Eh. Assuming energy costs will continue to drop indefinitely (at the kwh delivered, overall) despite significant recent evidence from one of the top renewable energy markets is it’s own type of fallacy no? Renewables have a much more complicated cost structure due to production timing issues and capacity issues, that show up especially during winter in a cold climate - which is exactly the issue Europe is having. They keep getting papered over by advocates, but having had to deal with this directly by building my own off grid energy system - at some point you have to deal with it or you freeze. Indirectly, I think they’re both touching on different elements of the problem and using incomplete data from both perspectives.
      - specialist 5y ago
        aka Transmission. That's what HVDC will fix. The challenge in the USA is policy, not technical. I know nothing about EU, but assume they have a similar rat's nest of red tape. FWIW, David Roberts' Volts newsletter covers the USA-centric stuff. https://www.volts.wtf/p/volts-podcast-the-challenges-of-building https://www.volts.wtf/p/volts-podcast-the-challenges-of-buil... [2021/08/27] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-voltage_direct_current https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-voltage_direct_current > they’re both touching on different elements There is no silver bullet. We need more of everything, there's always more to the story.

nextaccountic 5y ago

> If fusion power is forever more expensive than solar+storage is there any point to it? Yes, because fusion has the potential of harnessing much more power in a relatively small power plant. Even if it's more expensive, it's TWs you wouldn't otherwise get.