3 ms·

Sorry, but none of this works - although it’s a fun thought experiment. It’s very hard to predict human behaviour and it’s impossible to know how things will un

by human 5y ago

Sorry, but none of this works - although it’s a fun thought experiment. It’s very hard to predict human behaviour and it’s impossible to know how things will unfold over time. Closing coal mines without having an alternative power source would only create shortages and price hikes. Only 2-3% of new car sales are EVs. You not getting an EV to leave it to someone else is not going to get that number up. The line thing would exasperate people and everyone would leave. Actually, seeing long lines and impatient customers is probably the best way to accelerate service by stressing out the staff.

jillesvangurp 5y ago
Coal price instability accelerates closures of coal plants. It basically pushes them to being unprofitable faster. The recent gas and coal shortages are a great example: it's accelerating closures in a few places. It's also scaring off investors seeing that promised life times of plants are worth nothing. Coal plants delivered last decade are already being closed. E.g. the Germans just opened a plant that will now close in 2030 (the new government is planning that). That's expensive. It's one of those things that happens more because it's happening more. Even in heavily pro-coal states in the US they are closing plants. EV sales vary world wide. In Norway, it's >70%. The Netherlands has 32%. Germany is not far behind with 28%. The US is indeed lagging a bit. An interesting effect you are starting to see in the EU is people worrying about not being able to sell their ICE car second hand, being faced with additional fees and cost for fuel, or being denied access to cities and regions. Fear of these things is becoming a big driver. And there's quite a bit of FOMO as well. Both with coal plants closing and EV adoption, fear is accelerating what was happening anyway.

3 ms·

Sorry, but none of this works - although it’s a fun thought experiment. It’s very hard to predict human behaviour and it’s impossible to know how things will un

by human 5y ago

jillesvangurp 5y ago
Coal price instability accelerates closures of coal plants. It basically pushes them to being unprofitable faster. The recent gas and coal shortages are a great example: it's accelerating closures in a few places. It's also scaring off investors seeing that promised life times of plants are worth nothing. Coal plants delivered last decade are already being closed. E.g. the Germans just opened a plant that will now close in 2030 (the new government is planning that). That's expensive. It's one of those things that happens more because it's happening more. Even in heavily pro-coal states in the US they are closing plants. EV sales vary world wide. In Norway, it's >70%. The Netherlands has 32%. Germany is not far behind with 28%. The US is indeed lagging a bit. An interesting effect you are starting to see in the EU is people worrying about not being able to sell their ICE car second hand, being faced with additional fees and cost for fuel, or being denied access to cities and regions. Fear of these things is becoming a big driver. And there's quite a bit of FOMO as well. Both with coal plants closing and EV adoption, fear is accelerating what was happening anyway.