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> NYC will still want to have direct-burn natural gas heating for cold days because that’ll be more efficient than resorting to resistive heating. I agree. Wi

> NYC will still want to have direct-burn natural gas heating for cold days because that’ll be more efficient than resorting to resistive heating. I agree. With climate change and unpredictable weather I really wouldn't go all-in on heat pumps. Even with hyper-heat it only works efficiently down to 5 degrees Fahrenheit. NYC rarely gets colder than that, but I wouldn't be surprised if the extreme cold days are the same days where electricity has problems. Those two things together means people freezing to death. I think buildings should have both, and default to heat pumps.

newjersey 5y ago
> Those two things together means people freezing to death. If we want to prevent people from freezing to death, the best way is to help people get 1. food 2. clothes 3. shelter 4. health care. I'd argue gas based heat isn't even on the list. As you said, we should not go all-in on heat pumps. We can and should have alternate sources of heat for vulnerable people (I am thinking hospitals, retirement communities, and so on). I am confident that healthy, well-fed, appropriately dressed people in well insulated homes do not die because the weather outside dips below freezing for under a day.
- gscott 5y ago
  https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2009/01/bayc-j28.html https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2009/01/bayc-j28.html
drusenko 5y ago
That’s a big misconception. Latest generation heat pumps can work well even in very cold climates eg Lake Tahoe. The “fixes” needed to make that work aren’t that dramatic eg a bit of pre-heating of some parts with regular electric heating elements.
- endisneigh 5y ago
  What's the big misconception? My comment doesn't disagree with what you're saying.
  - jabart 5y ago
    Heat pumps work in cold weather and should have emergency heat where it's resistance coils inside the home. Your HVAC installer should install the correct system by zone. Your fear of people freezing to death over heat pumps are unfounded. There are backups built in that work with the insulation value of a house. New homes should be very air tight and require less heating, suited for heat pumps.
    - endisneigh 5y ago
      I never claimed heat pumps don't work in cold weather. The point is about non-electric redundancy, not heat pumps having resistance coils. I'm well aware of the functionality of modern heat pumps. Even in a house with foam insulation - the highest "normally available" insulation - freezing to death is just a matter of time without heat. When considering city-wide infrastructure it's something that needs to be considered. I'm not saying it's necessarily going to happen, but you'd be dumb not to think about redundancy measures, hence my top-level comment. This type of redundancy is why many commercial buildings have gas generators, for example.
      - jabart 5y ago
        A gas furnace would require electricity. You need electricity to ignite and exhaust most natural gas heating. There are vent-free options. Not common for those to be installed and back to having your own option for backup power. Which can be propane or gasoline.
        endisneigh 5y ago
        The amount of electricity a gas furnace requires is trivial and not really relevant to this discussion. A heat pump requires many orders of magnitude more electricity. A 10kwh battery could power a gas furnace and a water heater electrically for a year.
        jabart 5y ago
switchbak 5y ago
You can get heat pumps that work in colder weather, those are very common here in Canada. Certainly plenty sufficient for NYC. You can also mix and match a variety of backup/supplemental heat sources (only some of which make sense in an urban context), and of course a ground source heat pump is another (expensive) option for very cold climates.
rosndo 5y ago
> Those two things together means people freezing to death What is the deal with americans and freezing to death? I’m from Scandinavia, and the only times I’ve heard people discuss that is in the context of someone getting drunk and passing out outside. Fuck me, even if it somehow reaches -20C inside all you need to do is grab a few extra blankets and stay under them in order to remain warm. If you’re really worried, just invest some money in a sufficiently warm sleeping bag. Installing gas as a backup would be moronic unless you’re expecting to spend months without power.
- Applejinx 5y ago
  I think it's Americans invested in competing technologies, doing the modern cultural thing of hyperbola and escalation to the point of insisting that people retrofitting stuff with heat pumps are MURDERERS and clearly seeking to literally kill hapless victims. I'm seeing a lot of intense argument here that's going waaay over to the extremes of scaremongering, and the context doesn't seem to warrant using emotional arguments to shut down the proposal in shame and guilt over actually setting out to kill lots of foolish people. That seems… excessive, as a claim. Me, I'm in southern Vermont, heat with a wood stove and oil furnace, and just replaced a deteriorating resistive water heater with a big heat pump water heater. I do envy the cooking-with-flame folks, though :)
  - nkurz 5y ago
    Hi Neighbor! I'm also in Southern Vermont (Readsboro), also heat primarily with a wood, also have fuel oil backup, and also recently replaced my resistance water heater with a heat pump. I don't know if you need to envy the flame for cooking, though. We've got a fairly weak propane range top, and while the largest burner works OK, I'm thinking of upgrading to induction at some point.

newjersey 5y ago

> Those two things together means people freezing to death. If we want to prevent people from freezing to death, the best way is to help people get 1. food 2. clothes 3. shelter 4. health care. I'd argue gas based heat isn't even on the list. As you said, we should not go all-in on heat pumps. We can and should have alternate sources of heat for vulnerable people (I am thinking hospitals, retirement communities, and so on). I am confident that healthy, well-fed, appropriately dressed people in well insulated homes do not die because the weather outside dips below freezing for under a day.

gscott 5y ago
https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2009/01/bayc-j28.html https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2009/01/bayc-j28.html

drusenko 5y ago

That’s a big misconception. Latest generation heat pumps can work well even in very cold climates eg Lake Tahoe. The “fixes” needed to make that work aren’t that dramatic eg a bit of pre-heating of some parts with regular electric heating elements.

endisneigh 5y ago
What's the big misconception? My comment doesn't disagree with what you're saying.
- jabart 5y ago
  Heat pumps work in cold weather and should have emergency heat where it's resistance coils inside the home. Your HVAC installer should install the correct system by zone. Your fear of people freezing to death over heat pumps are unfounded. There are backups built in that work with the insulation value of a house. New homes should be very air tight and require less heating, suited for heat pumps.
  - endisneigh 5y ago
    I never claimed heat pumps don't work in cold weather. The point is about non-electric redundancy, not heat pumps having resistance coils. I'm well aware of the functionality of modern heat pumps. Even in a house with foam insulation - the highest "normally available" insulation - freezing to death is just a matter of time without heat. When considering city-wide infrastructure it's something that needs to be considered. I'm not saying it's necessarily going to happen, but you'd be dumb not to think about redundancy measures, hence my top-level comment. This type of redundancy is why many commercial buildings have gas generators, for example.
    - jabart 5y ago
      A gas furnace would require electricity. You need electricity to ignite and exhaust most natural gas heating. There are vent-free options. Not common for those to be installed and back to having your own option for backup power. Which can be propane or gasoline.
      - endisneigh 5y ago
        The amount of electricity a gas furnace requires is trivial and not really relevant to this discussion. A heat pump requires many orders of magnitude more electricity. A 10kwh battery could power a gas furnace and a water heater electrically for a year.
        jabart 5y ago

switchbak 5y ago

You can get heat pumps that work in colder weather, those are very common here in Canada. Certainly plenty sufficient for NYC. You can also mix and match a variety of backup/supplemental heat sources (only some of which make sense in an urban context), and of course a ground source heat pump is another (expensive) option for very cold climates.

rosndo 5y ago

> Those two things together means people freezing to death What is the deal with americans and freezing to death? I’m from Scandinavia, and the only times I’ve heard people discuss that is in the context of someone getting drunk and passing out outside. Fuck me, even if it somehow reaches -20C inside all you need to do is grab a few extra blankets and stay under them in order to remain warm. If you’re really worried, just invest some money in a sufficiently warm sleeping bag. Installing gas as a backup would be moronic unless you’re expecting to spend months without power.

Applejinx 5y ago
I think it's Americans invested in competing technologies, doing the modern cultural thing of hyperbola and escalation to the point of insisting that people retrofitting stuff with heat pumps are MURDERERS and clearly seeking to literally kill hapless victims. I'm seeing a lot of intense argument here that's going waaay over to the extremes of scaremongering, and the context doesn't seem to warrant using emotional arguments to shut down the proposal in shame and guilt over actually setting out to kill lots of foolish people. That seems… excessive, as a claim. Me, I'm in southern Vermont, heat with a wood stove and oil furnace, and just replaced a deteriorating resistive water heater with a big heat pump water heater. I do envy the cooking-with-flame folks, though :)
- nkurz 5y ago
  Hi Neighbor! I'm also in Southern Vermont (Readsboro), also heat primarily with a wood, also have fuel oil backup, and also recently replaced my resistance water heater with a heat pump. I don't know if you need to envy the flame for cooking, though. We've got a fairly weak propane range top, and while the largest burner works OK, I'm thinking of upgrading to induction at some point.