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Other replies mention Scotland and the SNP, and lest we forget, Scotland is more pro-EU than England, and the last Scottish independence referendum was won on a
by SideburnsOfDoom 5y ago
Other replies mention Scotland and the SNP, and lest we forget, Scotland is more pro-EU than England, and the last Scottish independence referendum was won on a promise of "stay in the UK and stay in the EU" - yes, really, the threat that an independent Scotland would not be an EU member on day one. (1)
But it's not just about Scotland. Do not forget the question of Northern Ireland, which is now increasingly aligned with the Republic of Ireland. When UK and ROI were both in the EU it was less of a hard choice, but that has changed.
Brexit, while also honouring the integrity of the UK and also the Good Friday agreement is basically about squaring the circle - something has to give. Right now NI is aligned with the Republic of Ireland, not with England, and the Brexiters are not happy about it because NI gets a better Brexit deal by having less Brexit, which doesn't make them look good. But they need to face up to the fact that due to brexit, there has to be a border somewhere between Dublin and London and every position has serious drawbacks. (2)
if NI gets to like the current dispensation well then they might feel like re-joining the republic.
Two fault-lines, not one. It means that the UK needs not one but two wins on throws of the dice in order to remain intact. And a break at one fault-line would trigger restlessness at the other. So the odds of the UK remaining intact go down.
1) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum#European_Union https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_ref...
2) https://ukandeu.ac.uk/irish-border-four-acts/ https://ukandeu.ac.uk/irish-border-four-acts/
- jacquesm 5y agoExactly. The degree to which the Scottish and the Northern Irish situation challenge the integrity of the UK has not been seen since the Good Friday Agreement. Risking the stability of the UK to such a degree was highly irresponsible.
- 123pie123 5y agonot to mention the secondary effects of areas like cornwall and possibly the north of england wanting independance
- SideburnsOfDoom 5y agoI forgot to mention, the way that a) having a Brexit, b) honouring the Good Friday agreement and c) territorial integrity of the UK (no border between NI and GB) all at once is called the "Brexit Trilemma" As in, pick any 2, we can't have all 3 at once as that's logically inconsistent - these are not compatible things. The decision to add "brexit" to the mix was _not_ a responsible act by rational actors. See https://twitter.com/rdanielkelemen/status/1367137477060939781/photo/1 https://twitter.com/rdanielkelemen/status/136713747706093978... or google "Brexit Trilemma". https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=brexit+trilemma https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=brexit+trilemma