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Not anywhere nearly as bad as the remaining crowd made it out to be. At least according to economic and social data, things are actually going pretty well.

jacquesm 5y ago
You should definitely give us your sources for economic and social data then, everything I've seen so far indicates a slow trainwreck, not as bad as it could have been but certainly not 'actually going pretty well'.
- hunterb123 5y ago
  You should definitely also provide sources and data for your assessment of it being a "trainwreck". You're doing the same thing you're criticizing, you just gave your opinion, no facts. > At least _according to economic and social data_, things are actually going _pretty well_. > _everything I've seen_ so far indicates a _slow trainwreck_ This happens a lot in this thread. Basically Yes-huh, Nuh-uh arguments. ~ Merry Christmas everyone, maybe a future rule of no political threads on this day.
  - jacquesm 5y ago
    There is a nice linked article for your perusal.
    - hunterb123 5y ago
      Yes and they also say: > Disentangling precisely what has been caused by the pandemic and what is the result of Brexit is difficult. In no way do they do that. They are attributing Brexit as the cause without any proof. They only note the decrease, they don't link it to Brexit. You can't directly compare 2021 to pre-pandemic levels because economies were shut down. These decreases are caused by the pandemic, in no way does the article link Brexit to these numbersl
      - jacquesm 5y ago
        There is a fair estimate in there, it doesn't need to be precisely for it to be usable. The consensus seems to be ~4% due to Brexit and ~2% due to COVID-19. You can dispute that if you want.
        hunterb123 5y ago
        I assume you're talking about the following: > The extent of economic damage from Brexit has been made clear by the Office for Budget Responsibility, which predicts that leaving the EU will reduce our long-term GDP by around 4%, compared to a fall of around 1.5% that will be caused by the pandemic. Okay a prediction from a budget office, many times these are far off, many times they are political. That's not a statistic, it's a prediction from one group based on conjecture. So let me ask you this, what _FACT_ (statistic), not _OPINION_ (prediction) have you seen that leads you to believe Brexit resulted in economic loss?
        jacquesm 5y ago
        Here is one article, there are plenty of others and they all have roughly the same ranges: https://www.bbc.com/news/business-59070020 https://www.bbc.com/news/business-59070020 And that's not 'exports' per se, as much as it is GDP.
        hunterb123 5y ago
        Please say the fact and source it with the article instead of just linking to it. The reason you don't say the fact is because there is no fact in that article. What in that article proved to you that Brexit caused this? What explained the 4%? A comparison of post-Brexit, pre-pandemic GDP numbers is more reliable: https://www.businessinsider.com/moodys-brexit-impact-on-gdp-more-benign-than-predicted-2018-8 https://www.businessinsider.com/moodys-brexit-impact-on-gdp-... The pandemic clearly caused a drop in the GDP when it hit, Brexit did not. You have to PROVE why you think Brexit caused this dip in 2021 all of a sudden. You can't just say, oh look a dip finally happened, these things take time to kick in, it must be that thing I think was going to do it. All the way until the pandemic Brexit GDP was steady, not following the doomsday forecasts, only when the pandemic hit did the GDP drop. You can directly attribute shutting down the economy to a drop in GDP. You have not attributed anything to Brexit. - edit because I'm at my limit - First off, the point was the GDP was stead in 2018, post-Brexit, pre-pandemic. The reason you can't use 2021 GDP numbers directly is because we shut down economies due to covid. You linked two articles with the same "prediction", they did not have any facts linking Brexit to anything. Feel free to get angry and give up, but do note that nothing you have linked proves Brexit caused the dip in GDP at all. I'm not claiming anything, I can't prove a negative. You have the burden of proof if you are trying to say X caused Y.
kergonath 5y ago
So far, things are happening almost exactly as people told back before the referendum, when some muppets called it “project fear”. Brexit has not brought any of the economic benefits it was supposed to, so I am not sure where you get your economic data. The NHS is still on the verge of collapse, for a start. I guess the upside is that now a lot of smaller British businesses have opened a subsidiary on the continent. If your social data is the number of continentals in Britain then, sure, it is delivering. Shame it’s tanking the whole country in the process. Otherwise, poverty and inequality haven’t exactly improved.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
breadbreadbread 5y ago
before brexit, things also werent nearly as bad as the leave crowd made them out to be, considering they were worried about a nonexistent migration apocalypse. Kind of a moot point to say "well the other guy was being crazy"

jacquesm 5y ago

You should definitely give us your sources for economic and social data then, everything I've seen so far indicates a slow trainwreck, not as bad as it could have been but certainly not 'actually going pretty well'.

hunterb123 5y ago
You should definitely also provide sources and data for your assessment of it being a "trainwreck". You're doing the same thing you're criticizing, you just gave your opinion, no facts. > At least _according to economic and social data_, things are actually going _pretty well_. > _everything I've seen_ so far indicates a _slow trainwreck_ This happens a lot in this thread. Basically Yes-huh, Nuh-uh arguments. ~ Merry Christmas everyone, maybe a future rule of no political threads on this day.
- jacquesm 5y ago
  There is a nice linked article for your perusal.
  - hunterb123 5y ago
    Yes and they also say: > Disentangling precisely what has been caused by the pandemic and what is the result of Brexit is difficult. In no way do they do that. They are attributing Brexit as the cause without any proof. They only note the decrease, they don't link it to Brexit. You can't directly compare 2021 to pre-pandemic levels because economies were shut down. These decreases are caused by the pandemic, in no way does the article link Brexit to these numbersl
    - jacquesm 5y ago
      There is a fair estimate in there, it doesn't need to be precisely for it to be usable. The consensus seems to be ~4% due to Brexit and ~2% due to COVID-19. You can dispute that if you want.
      - hunterb123 5y ago
        I assume you're talking about the following: > The extent of economic damage from Brexit has been made clear by the Office for Budget Responsibility, which predicts that leaving the EU will reduce our long-term GDP by around 4%, compared to a fall of around 1.5% that will be caused by the pandemic. Okay a prediction from a budget office, many times these are far off, many times they are political. That's not a statistic, it's a prediction from one group based on conjecture. So let me ask you this, what _FACT_ (statistic), not _OPINION_ (prediction) have you seen that leads you to believe Brexit resulted in economic loss?
        jacquesm 5y ago
        Here is one article, there are plenty of others and they all have roughly the same ranges: https://www.bbc.com/news/business-59070020 https://www.bbc.com/news/business-59070020 And that's not 'exports' per se, as much as it is GDP.
        hunterb123 5y ago
        Please say the fact and source it with the article instead of just linking to it. The reason you don't say the fact is because there is no fact in that article. What in that article proved to you that Brexit caused this? What explained the 4%? A comparison of post-Brexit, pre-pandemic GDP numbers is more reliable: https://www.businessinsider.com/moodys-brexit-impact-on-gdp-more-benign-than-predicted-2018-8 https://www.businessinsider.com/moodys-brexit-impact-on-gdp-... The pandemic clearly caused a drop in the GDP when it hit, Brexit did not. You have to PROVE why you think Brexit caused this dip in 2021 all of a sudden. You can't just say, oh look a dip finally happened, these things take time to kick in, it must be that thing I think was going to do it. All the way until the pandemic Brexit GDP was steady, not following the doomsday forecasts, only when the pandemic hit did the GDP drop. You can directly attribute shutting down the economy to a drop in GDP. You have not attributed anything to Brexit. - edit because I'm at my limit - First off, the point was the GDP was stead in 2018, post-Brexit, pre-pandemic. The reason you can't use 2021 GDP numbers directly is because we shut down economies due to covid. You linked two articles with the same "prediction", they did not have any facts linking Brexit to anything. Feel free to get angry and give up, but do note that nothing you have linked proves Brexit caused the dip in GDP at all. I'm not claiming anything, I can't prove a negative. You have the burden of proof if you are trying to say X caused Y.

kergonath 5y ago

So far, things are happening almost exactly as people told back before the referendum, when some muppets called it “project fear”. Brexit has not brought any of the economic benefits it was supposed to, so I am not sure where you get your economic data. The NHS is still on the verge of collapse, for a start. I guess the upside is that now a lot of smaller British businesses have opened a subsidiary on the continent. If your social data is the number of continentals in Britain then, sure, it is delivering. Shame it’s tanking the whole country in the process. Otherwise, poverty and inequality haven’t exactly improved.

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

breadbreadbread 5y ago

before brexit, things also werent nearly as bad as the leave crowd made them out to be, considering they were worried about a nonexistent migration apocalypse. Kind of a moot point to say "well the other guy was being crazy"