I picked relatively high number 1/10000 as a starting point to get a ballpark. NASA has never tested deployment in the zero gravity. It's unlikely that the pro

I picked relatively high number 1/10000 as a starting point to get a ballpark. NASA has never tested deployment in the zero gravity. It's unlikely that the probability is higher. Ariane launch failure probability dominates if you add zeros. 0.00001 -> 4.8% 0.000001 -> 4.5%