If you look at the long-term expected inflation rate based on T-bill yields, it is not so different from before (say around 2018-19 or so). I think 6% is probab

If you look at the long-term expected inflation rate based on T-bill yields, it is not so different from before (say around 2018-19 or so). I think 6% is probably an inappropriate number to use in this comparison. Though I agree it looks like negative real rates. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10YIE https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10YIE https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T5YIE https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T5YIE (Alternatively you could suppose we’ll have inflation at x for one year and y on average for the next 9. If that’s the case I think the data above implies x=2.22% and y=4.7%, so I still think 6% is too much but maybe not totally crazy)