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Review of “Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?”
The original predictions link:
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25594068
- abletonlive 5y agoInflation was pretty well predicted. Good job hackernews
- ak_111 5y agoStriking that the major stories that occurred this year weren't mentioned anywhere in any of the top voted comments, or where mentioned in exactly the wrong way: ordered by my subjective level of importance: - Increased spread of covid variants right until the end of 2021 (along with prolonging of lockdown measures). - Official recognition by the Fed that inflation is no longer transitory - State Capitol attack. - Increased confrontation with Russia. - Taliban taking over Afghanistan in a blink of an eye. - Stock market smashing all time high after all time high. - Evergrande collapse. - Lira collapse - The Great Resignation - web3, nft and metaverse dominating tech discussion.
- arturkane7 5y agotbf some of these are quite contradictory no way anyone could have predicted them and not look like a fool, which is a sign of the crazy time we live in. Evergrand and Lira collapsing with the markets barely reacting for example.
- emteycz 5y agoActually I think that's a property of most significant predictions that came true - and it's nothing new. Reality is and always was much crazier than our imagination and sense of what is normal/possible.
- mellosouls 5y agoThis is an excellent list though I think the last two have little impact outside of tech-heavy fora like this (tbf you specifically mention "tech discussion"). Most of the others actually mean something in the real world.
- mam4 5y agoNo one cares about the capitol attack
- cdaringe 5y agoMy community cares deeply about it, but action is taken pretty much only via donations and the ballot box
- ggm 5y agomy pick for 2022 remains crypto crash. my second pick is that quantum supremacy will not happen in 2022 my third pick is that 2022 will be the year of linux desktop
- rvz 5y ago> my pick for 2022 remains crypto crash. You know what? Maybe this time, you could be right. Let's come back to this in a years time and tell everyone about it.
- spot5010 5y agoI am willing to bet that quantum supremacy for some actually useful computation is not going to happen in this decade.
- ggm 5y agoI have doubts it will ever be "Supreme" but I can genuinely believe it will help locate solutions, subsequently confirmed by traditional methods, which are then optimised to be as quick or quicker. Run enough times, find the statistically satisfying minima or maxima or point of interest. Mainly it's about coherence and noise. Stable qbits are like Noah's cubits: hard to find. ubiquitous RSA factoring in nanoseconds? Don't personally think so. Specific key finding for post-hoc analysis? Dunno, but not in 2022 or by 2030 (to agree with you)
- Shared404 5y ago> my third pick is that 2022 will be the year of linux desktop Don't do that, don't give me hope. /j In all seriousness though, I don't know if we'll ever see it. That being said, if the Steam Deck materializes, is popular, and people don't go straight to booting Windows... It could actually happen!
- ggm 5y agoLinux will have a functional desktop environment before OSX has a tiling window manager which doesn't need you to "root" your installation :-(
- jimhi 5y agoThe next incoming trend of startups is Buy Now, Pay later. A series of companies will offer you to keep your standard of living and assume you can pay it off at a later date. Many will abuse these services assuming they can have their pre-Covid lifestyles and just “wait out” whatever recession.
- joelbluminator 5y agoisn't that called installments/credit?
- contravariant 5y ago> Software Bill of Material (SBOM) will become more of a thing Not sure if it's become more of a thing but it is pretty dang relevant these last few weeks.
- xyzwave 5y agoSomewhat of an outsider here. What’re you referring to?
- dreinhardt 5y agoLog4j
- Zababa 5y agoThere was log4j the last few weeks, the malicious packages in PyPI and the ua-parser-js that was taken over. At least that's what I remember from this year.
- lkrubner 5y agoThe process of drug approval is so slow that I can’t predict a one year revolution, but given a few years, I do expect to see mRNA vaccines/treatments to emerge as a broad category treating dozens of medical conditions.
- muzani 5y agoOnly one mention of climate change. Which was the biggest problem of the world before covid. Here's a tweet (in Malay) back in 2019, warning that parts of the country would be underwater in 2050: https://twitter.com/CentGPS/status/1191913321391247360 https://twitter.com/CentGPS/status/1191913321391247360 Floods hit hard a few weeks ago, really hard. Cars were underwater, homes completely wrecked. A lot of the damage were in line with the chart above. They're working on drainage but I don't really think that'll help for rising sea levels.
- odonnellryan 5y agoThis isn't directed at you. Why are we still using phrases like "I think" when we talk about climate change?
- pcdoodle 5y agoData manipulation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8455KEDitpU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8455KEDitpU
- JaggerJo 5y agoI’m from Germany and we were hit really hard by the flood. People died, lost their homes - but after a few months most of it is already forgotten. There is little to no action taken to prevent this from happening again - at least in the village my parents live. A friend of mine lost everything. It makes me freaking angry. We all have to adjust our behavior or we are really fucked sooner than most people think. Climate change is already here.
- przeor 5y agowhen last flood was in your area ? I heard about it, cos Im from Poland and we have plenty of areas that are probe to flooding but people still try to build homes in floading prone areas coz of X ( dunno why )
- betwixthewires 5y agoWell, number 55 was not factored using Shor's algorithm on a quantum computer, so I'm a happy camper.
- rvz 5y agoMy favourite prediction of all time (username checks out): https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25601917 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25601917