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US does not have negative rates. Every other central bank would raise interest rates with inflation at the levels we’re seeing in turkey. They problem here is t
by financetechbro 5y ago
US does not have negative rates. Every other central bank would raise interest rates with inflation at the levels we’re seeing in turkey. They problem here is that Turkey is doing the opposite
- halpert 5y agoThey have negative real rates.
- LatteLazy 5y agoThe US doesn't have negative interest rates, but with inflation over 6% and rates at 1.25% that's a pretty big negative real rate...
- dan-robertson 5y agoIf you look at the long-term expected inflation rate based on T-bill yields, it is not so different from before (say around 2018-19 or so). I think 6% is probably an inappropriate number to use in this comparison. Though I agree it looks like negative real rates. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10YIE https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10YIE https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T5YIE https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T5YIE (Alternatively you could suppose we’ll have inflation at x for one year and y on average for the next 9. If that’s the case I think the data above implies x=2.22% and y=4.7%, so I still think 6% is too much but maybe not totally crazy)
- dan-robertson 5y agoUgh, x and y the wrong way round obviously.