3 ms·
The warning is 100% correct. What works in mice only works in humans about 20% of the time and it's even smaller that it works without toxicity or adverse effe
by xyzzy21 5y ago
The warning is 100% correct. What works in mice only works in humans about 20% of the time and it's even smaller that it works without toxicity or adverse effects in humans even then. So eagerly expecting a human treatment is irrational and pollyanna.
Typically it's 10-20 years after animal studies such as mice or monkeys before you can expect doctors to have it available. And that's assuming everything work just right.
This is the same mistake MANY people make when some new wonder-technology is announced from university labs - it's another 20 years before an economically viable product that actually is available to consumers will be appearing. It's often called the "20 year rule". New battery technology could solve green energy? But it's just a lab discovery? Nope. Not anytime soon!!
I recently did a study of this for penicillin: it was almost exactly 20 years from Fleming discovering it to when consumers could get it from their doctors or hospitals post-WW2!
Transistors didn't start to eclipse vacuum tubes in consumer electronics until 20 years after the invention of the transistor (1948 to early 1970s). Same for integrated circuits - 20 years before the Silicon Valley boom took off (1959 to mid-to-late 1970s) and consumers started to benefit with PCs.