Yeah that seems TFA's take - i think OP's is (and mine is) that the effect of insurance is that if you're really unlucky and have a catastrophic illness/acciden

Yeah that seems TFA's take - i think OP's is (and mine is) that the effect of insurance is that if you're really unlucky and have a catastrophic illness/accident/etc, at least you won't be forced into poverty. This should not then be measured by health outcomes, but economic! It's quite plausible that health outcomes would be similar in aggregate. If you need urgent expensive surgery that takes your home deposit, you'll still pay it and live if you have no other option.