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The crisis is also recent. The Covid-19 pandemic arrived in Europe in early 2020. Please see the other comment that I just wrote in this thread. Poland has 2 pa
by lkrubner 5y ago
The crisis is also recent. The Covid-19 pandemic arrived in Europe in early 2020. Please see the other comment that I just wrote in this thread. Poland has 2 paths out of the crisis, it can take on debt or it can take on inflation (or it can mix the two). But there is no free way out of the crisis. Whatever strategy it decides on will have some consequence that will take a few years to unwind. And that is mostly true of all nations, of course, though Poland's situation is somewhat unique, in that it is in the EU but has its own currency, which has tended to make devaluation an easy option for it.
One can imagine an alternate universe in which Poland has been lead by progressives for the last 30 years, who make big investments in science research and education so that Poland came up to speed quickly on high-technology industries and so rapidly increased labor productivity. In that alternate universe, the government of Poland would be able to follow a policy of tight money, such that zloty would gain value against the euro. And of course, some of that happened, labor productivity increased. The zloty was 6 to 1 against the USA dollar in 1989 and then got to 2.5 to 1 around 2011 or 2012, before sinking again. One can imagine, in this alternate universe, Poland made such huge investments in science research and education that the zloty eventually got to be 1 to 1 with the USA dollar.
But that isn't what happened. Poland has been governed by center-right and far-right parties who've limited government involvement in the economy and who have avoided big bets on future investment, outside of infrastructure investments. So, as a practical matter, devaluing the currency, and accepting inflation, has been the most convenient way for the Polish government to keep unemployment down.