3 ms·
Notable issues: 1. Trend line doesn't fit very well (fails the eyeball test) 2. We don't see how many complaints occurred in pre-pandemic years, so it's hard
by Areibman 5y ago
Notable issues:
1. Trend line doesn't fit very well (fails the eyeball test)
2. We don't see how many complaints occurred in pre-pandemic years, so it's hard to know the baseline comparison.
3. We don't know how the total number of sales compares by season. More candles may have been sold during months of complaint spikes; if we assume each candle has an equal probability of being defective, then an increase in sales will show an increase in complaints.
- cyberge99 5y agoWe also don’t know how many of these candles are counterfeits.
- JBorrow 5y agoThe next tweet responds to your point 3. https://twitter.com/nick_beauchamp/status/1473555762110767109?s=20 https://twitter.com/nick_beauchamp/status/147355576211076710... For your point 1, this is a smoothed average. I suppose they should have used wider bins, but "failing the eyeball test" doesn't say much. The point isn't to fit the data, but to collate it so that you can clearly see the overall pattern. There's the additional prior here that we know there were significant increases in COVID infection at the same time, which has a well-studied symptom of loss of taste and smell, that nicely correlates with these.
- schwartzworld 5y agoWe also don't know when the candles were actually used compared to when they were bought. I've been gifted plenty of around the holidays that I didn't find an excuse to light for several months.