3 ms·

> one benchmark would be the relative severity profile versus the outgoing Delta variant, right? Agreed, and that’s what this SA study is doing. They compare t

by rsfern 5y ago

> one benchmark would be the relative severity profile versus the outgoing Delta variant, right? Agreed, and that’s what this SA study is doing. They compare to delta cases from this summer, and also non-omicron (presumably mostly delta? I can’t tell) cases from this November. They find that cases are less severe than in the summer, but not enough data to conclude any difference compared to November non-omicron. More data will tell us if it’s intrinsically milder with different symptom profile, or if the other strains in November were not delta, or if it actually only seemed milder because of undercounting prior infections, or something else

unclebucknasty 5y ago
I was multitasking on that last EDIT so probably not very clear. Sorry. >They compare to delta cases from this summer, and also non-omicron (presumably mostly delta? I can’t tell) cases from this November. From the article: Compared to delta infections in South Africa between April and November, omicron infections are associated with a 70% lower risk of severe disease, they said. The omicron data was collected for the two months through November. I read from that significant overlap in comparisons between both summer through November, as well as Omicron and Delta up through November. In all, that statement seems to specifically address most of your questions, as they have directly compared per the variables you seem to be questioning. The one thing they have not been able to conclude is the role immunity played in the differences. That's where I'm lobbing in my opinion (partially sourced from other reports, beyond this study) that we might be able to read into the seemingly stark shift when Omicron hit the scene, particularly WRT symptom variation. While we are awaiting more data, there does seem to be a consistency in these reports, and that consistency points to a sudden and observable difference in Omicron symptomology that would not be explained by increased immunity alone (again, my opinion, informed by the study time frames and other sources). Of course they can't conclude that yet, but I'm predicting that's what the data will show. So that was my internet layperson attempt to address your original question with regard to intrinsic virulence versus immunity. I just think it's unlikely that we're coincidentally seeing a sudden surge in immunity concomitant with the appearance of a new variant, which also happens to have a ton of mutations and starkly different spike profile.

by rsfern 5y ago

unclebucknasty 5y ago

I was multitasking on that last EDIT so probably not very clear. Sorry. >They compare to delta cases from this summer, and also non-omicron (presumably mostly delta? I can’t tell) cases from this November. From the article: Compared to delta infections in South Africa between April and November, omicron infections are associated with a 70% lower risk of severe disease, they said. The omicron data was collected for the two months through November. I read from that significant overlap in comparisons between both summer through November, as well as Omicron and Delta up through November. In all, that statement seems to specifically address most of your questions, as they have directly compared per the variables you seem to be questioning. The one thing they have not been able to conclude is the role immunity played in the differences. That's where I'm lobbing in my opinion (partially sourced from other reports, beyond this study) that we might be able to read into the seemingly stark shift when Omicron hit the scene, particularly WRT symptom variation. While we are awaiting more data, there does seem to be a consistency in these reports, and that consistency points to a sudden and observable difference in Omicron symptomology that would not be explained by increased immunity alone (again, my opinion, informed by the study time frames and other sources). Of course they can't conclude that yet, but I'm predicting that's what the data will show. So that was my internet layperson attempt to address your original question with regard to intrinsic virulence versus immunity. I just think it's unlikely that we're coincidentally seeing a sudden surge in immunity concomitant with the appearance of a new variant, which also happens to have a ton of mutations and starkly different spike profile.