2 ms·

Nope. You’re still making the same mistake. That is not how R0 works. You are falsely assuming that the exponential growth period of the virus stays the same fo

Nope. You’re still making the same mistake. That is not how R0 works. You are falsely assuming that the exponential growth period of the virus stays the same forever. The virus does not reach 100%. R0 as a general trait of a disease assumes everyone is susceptible. That is not how diseases work. There are many diseases with R0 > 1 and guess what? Not everyone got them. I know you’re caveating “effective R0” but frankly that’s stupid. Saying as long it keeps growing it will keep growing purposefully ignores the point I am making which is that it won’t keep growing. The effective R0 falls on its own. That is the point being made. It will absolutely not reach 100% of the population. Not even close.

zuminator 5y ago
> the point I am making which is that it won’t keep growing. And what I'm saying to you is that nobody believes otherwise. It's all known that diseases are self-limiting, and infection rates follow an s-curve and eventually drop off. This isn't a groundbreaking revelation.
- oneoff786 5y ago
  In my experience the majority of people assume that exponential growth means a small increase in spread rate means and exponentially larger number of people will be infected, and that “everyone” will get omicron. I’m not claiming to have a novel epidemiological insight. I’m claiming that most people get this wrong and are panicking about omicron because they don’t get this.