You're wrongly assuming that all incidence data of COVID-19 accurately represents its real spread. E.g. it may just be that beyond a point of exponential growth

You're wrongly assuming that all incidence data of COVID-19 accurately represents its real spread. E.g. it may just be that beyond a point of exponential growth testing ceases to be accurate. The German Robert Koch institute has pointed out many times that there's a hidden incidence number of all actual cases and the official one that represents everyone tested and recorded.