Not necessarily. I might not want to bet on my own situation. At all. Ever. Because that might tip my hand as to what I know about what's going on. Many close-t

Not necessarily. I might not want to bet on my own situation. At all. Ever. Because that might tip my hand as to what I know about what's going on. Many close-to-the-problem folks might then bet "zero." But just adjacent to it, folks closer to it than a random stranger, but not as tight-lipped, might make bets. But that's better than a "lol this rocks" or "lol this sucks" bet by someone who has absolutely no knowledge of the situation — at all. That's either going to be a random bet or, more likely, a pre-biased placing of a bet. Also, the link I provided above expired. Here's a better link; you can then download the PDF from there: https://direct.mit.edu/itgg/article/2/3/73/9498/The-Policy-Analysis-Market-A-Thwarted-Experiment https://direct.mit.edu/itgg/article/2/3/73/9498/The-Policy-A...