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> because it's so significantly more contagious, that even though a smaller percentage of infected people will require ventilators, the absolute number will be

> because it's so significantly more contagious, that even though a smaller percentage of infected people will require ventilators, the absolute number will be high enough to overwhelm hospitals. This is a legitimate theoretical concern, however empirically it looks like South Africa's hospitalizations are peaking at slightly more than half their previous wave, with deaths on pace to peak even lower[1][2] [1]https://twitter.com/thehowie/status/1473642495095496704 https://twitter.com/thehowie/status/1473642495095496704 [2]https://www.nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-index/disease-index-covid-19/surveillance-reports/daily-hospital-surveillance-datcov-report/ https://www.nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-index/disease-index-covi...

gammarator 5y ago
SA severity may not be representative because of greater prior immunity and a younger age skew.
- joshuahedlund 5y ago
  Exhibit B will be the UK. Their cases started spiking about two weeks ago. So far their hospitalizations haven't budged and are even a bit lower than they were a month ago, less than a quarter of their pandemic peak[1] [1]https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare
  - nooneisanon 5y ago
    If you're looking at the UK the daily numbers for London (which is ahead of the rest of England, and the rest of the UK) are here: https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/ https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas...
    - joshuahedlund 5y ago
      Thanks. Looks like you can filter my link by London as well, which shows hospital admissions have doubled in the last 10 days from about 1/6 to about 1/3 of the previous peak (though patients in hospital is lower at 1/4, possibly reflecting shorter stays but hard to say). London cases have continued spiking since but may possibly be peaking now (not sure how much lag there is in backdating reported cases here) so it will be interesting to see how much the hospital numbers rise from here.
  - rich_sasha 5y ago
    Hospital admissions are actually up a little: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ (parent link of the one you provided). That said, deaths are still dropping, and have been dropping since November, which was a local minimum in case numbers. The pertinent fact, I think, is that the UK is vaccinating like crazy, coming up to 1m boosters per day recently (total population just short of 70m IIRC), even 12-18 year-olds are getting jabbed now.
  - bigodbiel 5y ago
    England had high prevalence during the Summer, so not even them, maybe Denmark
  - ChrisRR 5y ago
    That is skewed by the vaccinations of course.
- abainbridge 5y ago
  Comparing SA with itself, omicron looks less severe than delta.
cdrini 5y ago
I believe the scientific consensus is that there isn't enough data to discount that theoretical concern. There's still too much uncertainty on how things will pan out, so the recommendation is boosters + some restrictions. They're not going to make a bet when people's lives are at stake, which seems reasonable to me. With more data coming out, I personally do hope we find that that concern is very unlikely. The situation is changing drastically day-by-day.
- JoshuaDavid 5y ago
  They are going to make decisions based on incomplete information when people's lives are at stake, decisions where deciding wrong can have material consequences to lives and livelihoods, because choosing not to act is itself a decision. I do think that the decision that was made to keep pushing boosters and basically do nothing else is probably the correct one, but not because it was the default thing to do and we have to wait until there's incontrovertible evidence that the default action will lead to ruin before doing anything else.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]

gammarator 5y ago

SA severity may not be representative because of greater prior immunity and a younger age skew.

joshuahedlund 5y ago
Exhibit B will be the UK. Their cases started spiking about two weeks ago. So far their hospitalizations haven't budged and are even a bit lower than they were a month ago, less than a quarter of their pandemic peak[1] [1]https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare
- nooneisanon 5y ago
  If you're looking at the UK the daily numbers for London (which is ahead of the rest of England, and the rest of the UK) are here: https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/ https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas...
  - joshuahedlund 5y ago
    Thanks. Looks like you can filter my link by London as well, which shows hospital admissions have doubled in the last 10 days from about 1/6 to about 1/3 of the previous peak (though patients in hospital is lower at 1/4, possibly reflecting shorter stays but hard to say). London cases have continued spiking since but may possibly be peaking now (not sure how much lag there is in backdating reported cases here) so it will be interesting to see how much the hospital numbers rise from here.
- rich_sasha 5y ago
  Hospital admissions are actually up a little: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ (parent link of the one you provided). That said, deaths are still dropping, and have been dropping since November, which was a local minimum in case numbers. The pertinent fact, I think, is that the UK is vaccinating like crazy, coming up to 1m boosters per day recently (total population just short of 70m IIRC), even 12-18 year-olds are getting jabbed now.
- bigodbiel 5y ago
  England had high prevalence during the Summer, so not even them, maybe Denmark
- ChrisRR 5y ago
  That is skewed by the vaccinations of course.
abainbridge 5y ago
Comparing SA with itself, omicron looks less severe than delta.

cdrini 5y ago

I believe the scientific consensus is that there isn't enough data to discount that theoretical concern. There's still too much uncertainty on how things will pan out, so the recommendation is boosters + some restrictions. They're not going to make a bet when people's lives are at stake, which seems reasonable to me. With more data coming out, I personally do hope we find that that concern is very unlikely. The situation is changing drastically day-by-day.

JoshuaDavid 5y ago
They are going to make decisions based on incomplete information when people's lives are at stake, decisions where deciding wrong can have material consequences to lives and livelihoods, because choosing not to act is itself a decision. I do think that the decision that was made to keep pushing boosters and basically do nothing else is probably the correct one, but not because it was the default thing to do and we have to wait until there's incontrovertible evidence that the default action will lead to ruin before doing anything else.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]