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South Africa is well under average vaccination rate globally. Also what do you mean by they've been exposed to the virus? Of course they've been exposed to the

by toolz 5y ago

South Africa is well under average vaccination rate globally. Also what do you mean by they've been exposed to the virus? Of course they've been exposed to the virus, that's exactly why it's interesting to see how their deaths follow cases. There's no indication that the first world, with much higher vaccination rates won't fare better than South Africa, which seems to be faring exceptionally well relative to other case spikes.

kelnos 5y ago
I think parent meant that they have a high (prior) infection rate, not exposure rate.
Auracle 5y ago
He means they were already exposed to another variant so they have some immunity. That immunity may very well work better than the vaccines on omicron - I don’t think we’re far enough in to it to have a great idea of that yet.
- BikiniPrince 5y ago
  They have something like 23% vaccination rate. It is about as raw as it is going to get. My friends who have it now indicate it is very mild.
  - andybak 5y ago
    Good job we've got your friends as a data point.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
crummy 5y ago
From memory, SA has 3.3mil confirmed cases, and an estimated 7.8x total when you include unconfirmed. So roughly 75 percent of the population have caught covid. Plus vaccinations, that adds up to a lot of mild reinfections.
SideburnsOfDoom 5y ago
> Also what do you mean by they've been exposed to the virus? "have been exposed to the virus" usually means something like "immune system isn't totally unprepared, but has had contact with this virus before (or a proxy via vaccination)". In South Africa, it is mostly via getting COVID-19 in the Alpha or Delta waves. Yes, over 70% of South Africans have had it: https://www.businesslive.co.za/bloomberg/news/2021-12-14-over-70-of-south-africans-have-had-covid-19-which-is-masking-severity-of-omicron-scientist-says/ https://www.businesslive.co.za/bloomberg/news/2021-12-14-ove...
- JPKab 5y ago
  So now we're going to suddenly admit that natural immunity is a thing. The science has been super clear on this for a long time. The problem is that the CDC and NIH, the grand tradition of federally funded science, have chosen not to study anything that conflicts with the directives of their organizations. They haven't bothered to study natural immunity and have left it to other countries like Israel. Instead they pretend like it doesn't exist and claim that they don't have science to support it (exactly like the federal government did with marijuana in the past) because they never bothered to fund studies. When you factor in the percentage of the population that has been vaccinated, well over 70% of the US population has been exposed to the virus in one form or another. I caught the virus in the alpha wave. It's been infuriating having the federal government pretend like t cell immunity isn't a thing. For my age group it absolutely is.
  - SideburnsOfDoom 5y ago
    > So now we're going to suddenly admit that natural immunity is a thing. A thing that gives some benefit to a lot of South African who also later got sick with COVID-19-Omicron, some of those were hospitalised, and some of those died. So clearly not a magic wand that prevents Omicron entirely. A benefit obtained at huge human costs in previous waves, which vaccination would have blunted. You can tell the bad takes because of the accusatory tone - Who is going to "suddenly admit" I don't even know who is being accused here? And the simplistic "all or nothing" thinking - the "is a thing or isn't" idea. Medicine is not Boolean logic. None of this is binary, boolean, on-off. neither vaccination nor prior infection are a guarantee.

by toolz 5y ago

kelnos 5y ago

I think parent meant that they have a high (prior) infection rate, not exposure rate.

Auracle 5y ago

He means they were already exposed to another variant so they have some immunity. That immunity may very well work better than the vaccines on omicron - I don’t think we’re far enough in to it to have a great idea of that yet.

BikiniPrince 5y ago
They have something like 23% vaccination rate. It is about as raw as it is going to get. My friends who have it now indicate it is very mild.
- andybak 5y ago
  Good job we've got your friends as a data point.

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

crummy 5y ago

From memory, SA has 3.3mil confirmed cases, and an estimated 7.8x total when you include unconfirmed. So roughly 75 percent of the population have caught covid. Plus vaccinations, that adds up to a lot of mild reinfections.

SideburnsOfDoom 5y ago

> Also what do you mean by they've been exposed to the virus? "have been exposed to the virus" usually means something like "immune system isn't totally unprepared, but has had contact with this virus before (or a proxy via vaccination)". In South Africa, it is mostly via getting COVID-19 in the Alpha or Delta waves. Yes, over 70% of South Africans have had it: https://www.businesslive.co.za/bloomberg/news/2021-12-14-over-70-of-south-africans-have-had-covid-19-which-is-masking-severity-of-omicron-scientist-says/ https://www.businesslive.co.za/bloomberg/news/2021-12-14-ove...

JPKab 5y ago
So now we're going to suddenly admit that natural immunity is a thing. The science has been super clear on this for a long time. The problem is that the CDC and NIH, the grand tradition of federally funded science, have chosen not to study anything that conflicts with the directives of their organizations. They haven't bothered to study natural immunity and have left it to other countries like Israel. Instead they pretend like it doesn't exist and claim that they don't have science to support it (exactly like the federal government did with marijuana in the past) because they never bothered to fund studies. When you factor in the percentage of the population that has been vaccinated, well over 70% of the US population has been exposed to the virus in one form or another. I caught the virus in the alpha wave. It's been infuriating having the federal government pretend like t cell immunity isn't a thing. For my age group it absolutely is.
- SideburnsOfDoom 5y ago
  > So now we're going to suddenly admit that natural immunity is a thing. A thing that gives some benefit to a lot of South African who also later got sick with COVID-19-Omicron, some of those were hospitalised, and some of those died. So clearly not a magic wand that prevents Omicron entirely. A benefit obtained at huge human costs in previous waves, which vaccination would have blunted. You can tell the bad takes because of the accusatory tone - Who is going to "suddenly admit" I don't even know who is being accused here? And the simplistic "all or nothing" thinking - the "is a thing or isn't" idea. Medicine is not Boolean logic. None of this is binary, boolean, on-off. neither vaccination nor prior infection are a guarantee.