3 ms·

Unlikely until adequate testing supplies are available that may be resolved next year. By the time a case shows up at the hospital the infection is no longer be

Unlikely until adequate testing supplies are available that may be resolved next year. By the time a case shows up at the hospital the infection is no longer being driven by viral replication. At that point inflammatory responses, like those dampened by the anti-IL-6 receptor antibody tocilizumab, dominate. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41573-021-00202-8 https://www.nature.com/articles/d41573-021-00202-8

rapjr9 5y ago
Supply is also an issue, see this article by Dr. Eric Topol: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/dec/21/paxlovid-anti-covid-pill-why-not-available https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/dec/21/paxlov... It seems strange that large scale manufacturing appears to have not even been started yet, the projections for 2022 are only for 200M treatment courses (the latest announcement, at the time of the above article the projection was 80M). Biden is in the process of implementing some measures to make testing more available, but it is going to take some time and looks rather inadequate (500M free tests would last maybe a few weeks with everyone in the USA doing regular testing? Maybe they'd last a lot longer if everyone only did symptomatic testing, although regular testing is required in some places which will use up a lot of tests). But unless manufacturing is ramped up quickly the supply of this drug is going to be very low. The USA has prepurchased only 10M treatment courses. So we won't be able to just give it to anyone (at 168,409 cases per day 10M treatment courses would only last 59 days). But you can't tell yet who will get seriously ill and Paxlovid treatment has to start when symptoms start (and the number of people with symptoms may be much higher than the current case/day count). So someone is going to have to decide who lives and who dies. For older or immunocompromised people this is likely an easy choice and will be a boon. For younger, healthier people this may not be an option at all until supply becomes much larger. Pfizer said they were going to help manufacturers make Paxlovid locally so that all countries would have access to it, license free. What is the status of those efforts? It seems to take 9 months to manufacture: https://www.india.com/news/world/pfizer-pill-paxlovid-becomes-first-us-authorized-home-covid-treatment-5151345/ https://www.india.com/news/world/pfizer-pill-paxlovid-become... "Federal health officials are expected to ration early shipments to the hardest hit parts of the country. Pfizer said the small supply is due to the manufacturing time — currently about nine months. The company says it can halve production time next year." So Paxlovid may be the beginning of the end of COVID-19, but it seems it is not going to happen quickly. Certainly not in time for much use with Omicron.

rapjr9 5y ago

Supply is also an issue, see this article by Dr. Eric Topol: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/dec/21/paxlovid-anti-covid-pill-why-not-available https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/dec/21/paxlov... It seems strange that large scale manufacturing appears to have not even been started yet, the projections for 2022 are only for 200M treatment courses (the latest announcement, at the time of the above article the projection was 80M). Biden is in the process of implementing some measures to make testing more available, but it is going to take some time and looks rather inadequate (500M free tests would last maybe a few weeks with everyone in the USA doing regular testing? Maybe they'd last a lot longer if everyone only did symptomatic testing, although regular testing is required in some places which will use up a lot of tests). But unless manufacturing is ramped up quickly the supply of this drug is going to be very low. The USA has prepurchased only 10M treatment courses. So we won't be able to just give it to anyone (at 168,409 cases per day 10M treatment courses would only last 59 days). But you can't tell yet who will get seriously ill and Paxlovid treatment has to start when symptoms start (and the number of people with symptoms may be much higher than the current case/day count). So someone is going to have to decide who lives and who dies. For older or immunocompromised people this is likely an easy choice and will be a boon. For younger, healthier people this may not be an option at all until supply becomes much larger. Pfizer said they were going to help manufacturers make Paxlovid locally so that all countries would have access to it, license free. What is the status of those efforts? It seems to take 9 months to manufacture: https://www.india.com/news/world/pfizer-pill-paxlovid-becomes-first-us-authorized-home-covid-treatment-5151345/ https://www.india.com/news/world/pfizer-pill-paxlovid-become... "Federal health officials are expected to ration early shipments to the hardest hit parts of the country. Pfizer said the small supply is due to the manufacturing time — currently about nine months. The company says it can halve production time next year." So Paxlovid may be the beginning of the end of COVID-19, but it seems it is not going to happen quickly. Certainly not in time for much use with Omicron.