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This is huge. ~90% decrease in hospitalization rate could mean that we no longer have to worry about COVID spikes filling up hospitals, one of the biggest issue

This is huge. ~90% decrease in hospitalization rate could mean that we no longer have to worry about COVID spikes filling up hospitals, one of the biggest issues during the pandemic. This could make COVID like the flu - something to avoid, but not something that's so dangerous that we shut down our lives to avoid it.

resoluteteeth 5y ago
It's extremely promising, but unfortunately it's going to take a while before there's enough to go around, so there may not be that much effect immediately. However, as long as covid doesn't mutate in a way that makes this pill ineffective (I don't know whether that's possible or not?) it could eventually effectively end the pandemic once they have enough doses.
JPKab 5y ago
Correct. For the vast majority of the population, COVID is already like the flu, but as you pointed out, a large enough percentage of the population (particularly obese/elderly/immune compromised) of people who contract it are at risk of hospitalization that it creates a lot of anxiety about hospital capacity. We're currently getting two pieces of good news on COVID: This pill, and perhaps more importantly for the majority of people on the planet who won't have the ability to get this pill, the data on Omicron is currently showing a divergence (compared to previous waves) of cases and deaths. This divergence is rather apparent by looking at graphs of South Africa. Previous spikes in cases resulted in corresponding (lagging by a few days) spikes in deaths. Omicron isn't showing this. Click between cases and deaths on this chart to see for yourself: https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=usa&areas=zaf&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usfl&areasRegional=usct&areasRegional=usor&areasRegional=usga&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-01-01&values=cases https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=usa&areas=zaf&are...
- jdavis703 5y ago
  Most of the American population is overweight* or has some other comorbidity like diabetes or high blood pressure. * Many public health authorities consider being overweight (and just obese) to be a risk factor.
  - JPKab 5y ago
    The numbers are the numbers. # of hospitalizations/# of cases is not a high number. It doesn't have to be a high number to overwhelm hospitals, I get that. But it's still a small percentage. When I caught it in February, before I was eligible for the vaccine, I was shocked by the reaction of most of my peers. They seemed surprised by my mild symptoms. The American public, as a whole, overestimates their own risk of hospitalization by orders of magnitude. You can be angry at me for recklessly stating this, and not piously pretending like the risk is evenly spread, but I'm not going to join in a mass delusion of pretending like 15 year old kids are statistically at risk from this virus. They aren't. The distributions of cases and deaths by age group on this CDC dashboard are striking: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#demographics https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#demographics
- sergiotapia 5y ago
  Precisely why I started a strict 1800 calorie cutting diet and working out six times a week. Already down 11kg. Obesity makes you severely at risk yet it's not really highlighted by the news. They make it seem like everybody is at severe risk. If anyone else wants to lose weight, it's simple but very difficult. It will test your discipline. Find out your TDEE using this https://tdeecalculator.net/ https://tdeecalculator.net/, subtract 500 and boom that's your ceiling. Don't eat anything beyond that. Use myfitnesspal to track calories and weigh your food using a scale. That simple. If you work out you will lose weight even quicker. You will succeed or fail in the kitchen. The gym is just gravy on top - fight your battle in the kitchen. It's simple but _very_ difficult. Easily the hardest thing I've done in my life.
  - inglor_cz 5y ago
    It is my understanding that most weight loss attempts are rather successful at the beginning (several weeks), they tend to slide towards a plateau in a few months and it is a real challenge not to gain the lost weight back in a year or two. Long term success rate seems to be around 20 per cent. [0] At the risk of sounding stupid or glib, the best strategy is "not to play", e.g. never gain the extra weight in the first place. Which may not be feasible for people who grow up in fat families and already reach adulthood as obese. But the still-nonobese people should be vigilant. [0] ... https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/16002825/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/16002825/
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
absurddoctor 5y ago
Isn’t it still the case that a large percentage of hospitalizations are people who refused to get vaccinated? Is there any reason to believe these same folks would willingly take this?
- kenjackson 5y ago
  The people who refuse vaccines don't do it for a really strong principled reason, AFAICT. I think they compartmentalize vaccines and the industry that makes them completely distinct from the rest of the pharma industry. Even more than that they view the Covid vaccine differently than flu or any other vaccine - largely for political reasons.
  - guerrilla 5y ago
    Some do, some don't. I know two anti-vaxxers and one of them takes medication for mental illness and the other doesn't trust any doctors for any reason but does all kinds of homeopathy and other psuedoscientific shit.
  - throwawayboise 5y ago
    I think people who refuse or are reluctant to be vaccinated do it for a variety of reasons. Some (I think a minority) are some degree of conspiracy nuts who think it's all a plot to reduce population and enable government mind control via altered DNA, etc. Some don't trust that the speed of the process as well as the immense political pressure to "do something" really sussed out the true effectiveness, safety, and immunity conferred by the vaccines, noting that coronaviruses have never had successful vaccines before now, as they mutate too rapidly. I'm in the second camp. I viewed the situation as entirely different from traditional, well studied vaccines for endemic diseases such as measles, mumps, etc. I eventually did get vaccinated as I was under threat to lose my job if I didn't. I didn't want it otherwise, and time has shown that they aren't nearly as effective as initially promised. Most of the initial promises that the vaccines were the key to ending the pandemic have turned out to be wrong, the only thing we can really now say is that they offer some (short-term?) protection to the recipient, and at least in the case of the Janssen/J&J vaccine they are not as safe as promised either. I will add that I don't like doctors, and I'm not a pill-popper. I don't take medicines that I don't need. I would be loathe to take any long-term prescription meds for any reason. Short term courses of antibiotics I will use. Other OTC very sparingly. I don't think I've taken more than a few Advils in the past 5 years, and that was when I had a tooth extracted.
potiuper 5y ago
Unlikely until adequate testing supplies are available that may be resolved next year. By the time a case shows up at the hospital the infection is no longer being driven by viral replication. At that point inflammatory responses, like those dampened by the anti-IL-6 receptor antibody tocilizumab, dominate. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41573-021-00202-8 https://www.nature.com/articles/d41573-021-00202-8
- rapjr9 5y ago
  Supply is also an issue, see this article by Dr. Eric Topol: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/dec/21/paxlovid-anti-covid-pill-why-not-available https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/dec/21/paxlov... It seems strange that large scale manufacturing appears to have not even been started yet, the projections for 2022 are only for 200M treatment courses (the latest announcement, at the time of the above article the projection was 80M). Biden is in the process of implementing some measures to make testing more available, but it is going to take some time and looks rather inadequate (500M free tests would last maybe a few weeks with everyone in the USA doing regular testing? Maybe they'd last a lot longer if everyone only did symptomatic testing, although regular testing is required in some places which will use up a lot of tests). But unless manufacturing is ramped up quickly the supply of this drug is going to be very low. The USA has prepurchased only 10M treatment courses. So we won't be able to just give it to anyone (at 168,409 cases per day 10M treatment courses would only last 59 days). But you can't tell yet who will get seriously ill and Paxlovid treatment has to start when symptoms start (and the number of people with symptoms may be much higher than the current case/day count). So someone is going to have to decide who lives and who dies. For older or immunocompromised people this is likely an easy choice and will be a boon. For younger, healthier people this may not be an option at all until supply becomes much larger. Pfizer said they were going to help manufacturers make Paxlovid locally so that all countries would have access to it, license free. What is the status of those efforts? It seems to take 9 months to manufacture: https://www.india.com/news/world/pfizer-pill-paxlovid-becomes-first-us-authorized-home-covid-treatment-5151345/ https://www.india.com/news/world/pfizer-pill-paxlovid-become... "Federal health officials are expected to ration early shipments to the hardest hit parts of the country. Pfizer said the small supply is due to the manufacturing time — currently about nine months. The company says it can halve production time next year." So Paxlovid may be the beginning of the end of COVID-19, but it seems it is not going to happen quickly. Certainly not in time for much use with Omicron.

resoluteteeth 5y ago

It's extremely promising, but unfortunately it's going to take a while before there's enough to go around, so there may not be that much effect immediately. However, as long as covid doesn't mutate in a way that makes this pill ineffective (I don't know whether that's possible or not?) it could eventually effectively end the pandemic once they have enough doses.

JPKab 5y ago

Correct. For the vast majority of the population, COVID is already like the flu, but as you pointed out, a large enough percentage of the population (particularly obese/elderly/immune compromised) of people who contract it are at risk of hospitalization that it creates a lot of anxiety about hospital capacity. We're currently getting two pieces of good news on COVID: This pill, and perhaps more importantly for the majority of people on the planet who won't have the ability to get this pill, the data on Omicron is currently showing a divergence (compared to previous waves) of cases and deaths. This divergence is rather apparent by looking at graphs of South Africa. Previous spikes in cases resulted in corresponding (lagging by a few days) spikes in deaths. Omicron isn't showing this. Click between cases and deaths on this chart to see for yourself: https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=usa&areas=zaf&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usfl&areasRegional=usct&areasRegional=usor&areasRegional=usga&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-01-01&values=cases https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=usa&areas=zaf&are...

jdavis703 5y ago
Most of the American population is overweight* or has some other comorbidity like diabetes or high blood pressure. * Many public health authorities consider being overweight (and just obese) to be a risk factor.
- JPKab 5y ago
  The numbers are the numbers. # of hospitalizations/# of cases is not a high number. It doesn't have to be a high number to overwhelm hospitals, I get that. But it's still a small percentage. When I caught it in February, before I was eligible for the vaccine, I was shocked by the reaction of most of my peers. They seemed surprised by my mild symptoms. The American public, as a whole, overestimates their own risk of hospitalization by orders of magnitude. You can be angry at me for recklessly stating this, and not piously pretending like the risk is evenly spread, but I'm not going to join in a mass delusion of pretending like 15 year old kids are statistically at risk from this virus. They aren't. The distributions of cases and deaths by age group on this CDC dashboard are striking: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#demographics https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#demographics
sergiotapia 5y ago
Precisely why I started a strict 1800 calorie cutting diet and working out six times a week. Already down 11kg. Obesity makes you severely at risk yet it's not really highlighted by the news. They make it seem like everybody is at severe risk. If anyone else wants to lose weight, it's simple but very difficult. It will test your discipline. Find out your TDEE using this https://tdeecalculator.net/ https://tdeecalculator.net/, subtract 500 and boom that's your ceiling. Don't eat anything beyond that. Use myfitnesspal to track calories and weigh your food using a scale. That simple. If you work out you will lose weight even quicker. You will succeed or fail in the kitchen. The gym is just gravy on top - fight your battle in the kitchen. It's simple but _very_ difficult. Easily the hardest thing I've done in my life.
- inglor_cz 5y ago
  It is my understanding that most weight loss attempts are rather successful at the beginning (several weeks), they tend to slide towards a plateau in a few months and it is a real challenge not to gain the lost weight back in a year or two. Long term success rate seems to be around 20 per cent. [0] At the risk of sounding stupid or glib, the best strategy is "not to play", e.g. never gain the extra weight in the first place. Which may not be feasible for people who grow up in fat families and already reach adulthood as obese. But the still-nonobese people should be vigilant. [0] ... https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/16002825/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/16002825/
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]

absurddoctor 5y ago

Isn’t it still the case that a large percentage of hospitalizations are people who refused to get vaccinated? Is there any reason to believe these same folks would willingly take this?

kenjackson 5y ago
The people who refuse vaccines don't do it for a really strong principled reason, AFAICT. I think they compartmentalize vaccines and the industry that makes them completely distinct from the rest of the pharma industry. Even more than that they view the Covid vaccine differently than flu or any other vaccine - largely for political reasons.
- guerrilla 5y ago
  Some do, some don't. I know two anti-vaxxers and one of them takes medication for mental illness and the other doesn't trust any doctors for any reason but does all kinds of homeopathy and other psuedoscientific shit.
- throwawayboise 5y ago
  I think people who refuse or are reluctant to be vaccinated do it for a variety of reasons. Some (I think a minority) are some degree of conspiracy nuts who think it's all a plot to reduce population and enable government mind control via altered DNA, etc. Some don't trust that the speed of the process as well as the immense political pressure to "do something" really sussed out the true effectiveness, safety, and immunity conferred by the vaccines, noting that coronaviruses have never had successful vaccines before now, as they mutate too rapidly. I'm in the second camp. I viewed the situation as entirely different from traditional, well studied vaccines for endemic diseases such as measles, mumps, etc. I eventually did get vaccinated as I was under threat to lose my job if I didn't. I didn't want it otherwise, and time has shown that they aren't nearly as effective as initially promised. Most of the initial promises that the vaccines were the key to ending the pandemic have turned out to be wrong, the only thing we can really now say is that they offer some (short-term?) protection to the recipient, and at least in the case of the Janssen/J&J vaccine they are not as safe as promised either. I will add that I don't like doctors, and I'm not a pill-popper. I don't take medicines that I don't need. I would be loathe to take any long-term prescription meds for any reason. Short term courses of antibiotics I will use. Other OTC very sparingly. I don't think I've taken more than a few Advils in the past 5 years, and that was when I had a tooth extracted.

potiuper 5y ago

Unlikely until adequate testing supplies are available that may be resolved next year. By the time a case shows up at the hospital the infection is no longer being driven by viral replication. At that point inflammatory responses, like those dampened by the anti-IL-6 receptor antibody tocilizumab, dominate. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41573-021-00202-8 https://www.nature.com/articles/d41573-021-00202-8

rapjr9 5y ago
Supply is also an issue, see this article by Dr. Eric Topol: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/dec/21/paxlovid-anti-covid-pill-why-not-available https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/dec/21/paxlov... It seems strange that large scale manufacturing appears to have not even been started yet, the projections for 2022 are only for 200M treatment courses (the latest announcement, at the time of the above article the projection was 80M). Biden is in the process of implementing some measures to make testing more available, but it is going to take some time and looks rather inadequate (500M free tests would last maybe a few weeks with everyone in the USA doing regular testing? Maybe they'd last a lot longer if everyone only did symptomatic testing, although regular testing is required in some places which will use up a lot of tests). But unless manufacturing is ramped up quickly the supply of this drug is going to be very low. The USA has prepurchased only 10M treatment courses. So we won't be able to just give it to anyone (at 168,409 cases per day 10M treatment courses would only last 59 days). But you can't tell yet who will get seriously ill and Paxlovid treatment has to start when symptoms start (and the number of people with symptoms may be much higher than the current case/day count). So someone is going to have to decide who lives and who dies. For older or immunocompromised people this is likely an easy choice and will be a boon. For younger, healthier people this may not be an option at all until supply becomes much larger. Pfizer said they were going to help manufacturers make Paxlovid locally so that all countries would have access to it, license free. What is the status of those efforts? It seems to take 9 months to manufacture: https://www.india.com/news/world/pfizer-pill-paxlovid-becomes-first-us-authorized-home-covid-treatment-5151345/ https://www.india.com/news/world/pfizer-pill-paxlovid-become... "Federal health officials are expected to ration early shipments to the hardest hit parts of the country. Pfizer said the small supply is due to the manufacturing time — currently about nine months. The company says it can halve production time next year." So Paxlovid may be the beginning of the end of COVID-19, but it seems it is not going to happen quickly. Certainly not in time for much use with Omicron.