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The point of a simulation isn't for technologists to practice business continuity and recovery plans, it was for executives to determine who they align with onc
by motohagiography 5y ago
The point of a simulation isn't for technologists to practice business continuity and recovery plans, it was for executives to determine who they align with once their primary stakeholder relationships fail.
When you think of what such a coordinated attack would look like, and by who, the only plausible scenario to me is a Russia/China axis setting up a SWIFT alternative for client states and then attacking the US network as a way to ride to the rescue with the new one and use it as a forcing function to overcome switching costs. Otherwise, the economics of mere vandalism at that scale don't make sense. They'd broadcast their intentions anyway if that were the case. (e.g. de-dollarization, China's SDRs, etc.) I don't think they're ready yet.
There is a cynical view that this was related to a trial run to determine whether retail deposits could be shifted to a U.S. Fed and ECB or other temporary* liquidity facility, but the failure of the US admin to install its favored comptroller of currency nominee, who would be supportive of the scheme, has reduced its momentum. I don't know that this was part of the simulation, but shift from a monopolar world and the vacuum it has created means we're literally in an age of conspiracies, so it's one of those 'when the going gets weird, the weird turn pro' situations. When it clicks that "cyber" just means governance, these exercises become a useful signal for overarching power plays.
Imo, the real threats to the "global financial system," aren't really to it at all, as cyber is a tactic in support of other co-ordinated activities to destabilize individual governments by undermining civilian infrastructure. I would interpret these exercises as more of a war games demonstration for policymakers who may be thinking about supporting populist national policies in their countries and deviating from the emerging hegemon.
- analyte123 5y agoI think you're missing something from the cynical view, which is that basically everybody has to lock down their subjects' deposits at the same time to avoid capital flight while they're overhauling the system - for example a "coordinated bank holiday...and coordinated delinking from major currencies". It's an opportunity for executives to learn exactly who to call and what types of actions they might be expected to take in a major banking crisis, whatever the trigger.
- JacobThreeThree 5y agoSWIFT alternatives have already been set up. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SPFS https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SPFS https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cross-Border_Inter-Bank_Payments_System https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cross-Border_Inter-Bank_Paymen...
- hnthrowaway0315 5y agoChina has everything to lose to cut itself from the global market. They are not going to do this unless US forces them to do so. The cold war mindset is pretty much one sided. What China needs is time and that is what US elites won't lend to it.
- phkahler 5y ago>> The point of a simulation isn't for technologists to practice business continuity and recovery plans, it was for executives to determine who they align with once their primary stakeholder relationships fail. Came to the comments for this. The simulation is being done out of fear that such things may come to pass. The number one goal is for the elite to figure out how to save themselves in such a scenario. Secondary goals are to help at various lower levels. This is always the case for every human being. In what order do you prioritize your allegiance to: Self, family, friends, company, country, coworkers, species, etc... ? These vary for each person, but typically self is near the top and some affiliations are next. I had to look at that list to see if I inadvertently put my own ordering... No, it's a mix of mine and what I suspect other peoples are.
- gentleman11 5y agoToday we live in a world where we feel safe using the internet for financial transactions. This is only possible as long as the public feels safe doing so. A series of massive cyber attacks could also weaken public trust and bring down the major part of the economy that is growing. It doesn’t have to be for financial profit