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>>>Will Saudi Arabia join in when it means the US abandons them... The Saudis have already entered a mutual defense pact with Russia >>>It's just a fancy titl

>>>Will Saudi Arabia join in when it means the US abandons them... The Saudis have already entered a mutual defense pact with Russia >>>It's just a fancy title. Dollar is the reserve currency, but Euro, Pound, Yen, etc... Actually it isn't, that is why sanctions work so well, Russia and China just entered into an agreement to trade directly between themselves without converting to USD first. It wont be long before Syria, Iran, North Korea, Argentina, Cuba and several African nations join the fray. Not to mention a large number of other out of favor political leaders that are sick of US led regime change or coup attempts constantly testing them..Think Bolsonaro, Duterte, Aung San Suu Kyi. These are the countries that hold the resources needed for a productive world and soon enough the rest of the world, including the West will be forced to follow them into an new non US hegemonic world, regardless of the number of guns and bombs Uncle Sam has.

sanp 5y ago
Yeah. But who will China sell its goods to? Last I checked, Russia has 144M people and EU / US / Japan have 1B+. Of course, China has a large domestic market but exports are still ~20% of GDP for them.
- sigmaprimus 5y ago
  The other side of that coin is who will the West buy their goods from, I would rather be in the position of having too much to sell than not enough to buy. The EU is already dependent on Russian natural gas and middle eastern oil so they will be forced to accept the new trade rules even if under protest. There is a possibility that the commonwealth countries along with the US might be able to put up a good fight but the current state of anti colonial rhetoric from within most commonwealth countries will most likely push the current leaders of these countries out of power and one by one they will join the rest of the world...The sun has been setting on the British Empire for a while now.
  - ericmay 5y ago
    > The other side of that coin is who will the West buy their goods from Themselves? Allied nations? Other countries around the world? Your entire discussion centers around this idea that all resources and all things are made in these non-western countries. It's a faulty assumption. China is dependent on imports as well - remember the rolling blackouts shutting down factories in China when they stopped coal imports to teach Australia a lesson and then Australia just sold the coal elsewhere? [1] Europe is "dependent" on Russian gas but those who are in charge in Russia really like that European money and their vacation homes. Long-term Europe is just fine here because they can just build alternative energy sources (warming planet may make much of Europe even less dependent on Russian natural gas for heating). It doesn't help them today but if the costs are too high there becomes a point that it's either not worth it, or liquified natural gas products from the US become attractive. It should go without saying that the oligarchs in Russia who run these companies... like not having their villas in London confiscated due to "sanctions". There's an upper limit on the maximum pain (outside of actual war) that either will inflict upon the other. The EU dependency on Russian gas thing is yet another overly simplified boogeyman like the US Dollar Reserve Currency status. What is actually concerning is Ukraine and how serious Putin is about invading and starting a war and whether or not he stops at Ukraine or does something drastic. I don't think the EU will be able to coordinate an effective military response which may lead to the block dissolving, especially if Putin does something crazy like invade Poland or some NATO country that isn't "important" - will the West really go to war? If Putin gambles here I don't think nukes will fly. So now Russia gets to fight a conventional war in Europe without existential risk - it's a great move for him geopolitically and strategically. EU member states such as France and Germany (the former is the only one that appears to have the ability to even fight) would basically go into a "save yourself" mode and start acting independently when push comes to shove. Outside of the UK most of the rest of the EU is far too small or useless to do anything. Americans are much more willing to fight in Europe than Italians or Spaniards are and I don't think we'd even send ground troops unless we're in an actual World War III scenario which nobody in the West wants to engage in, hence the stronger Russian upper hand here. Though I wouldn't put it past the U.S. to take a chance to really screw with Russia here in the meantime. [2] I wonder how that happened. Interesting coincidental timing. [1] https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/05/china-power-supply-crunch-relationship-with-australia-gdp-outlook.html https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/05/china-power-supply-crunch-re... [2] https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10331843/New-Russian-stealth-warship-suffers-225million-damage-catching-fire-construction.html https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10331843/New-Russia...

sanp 5y ago

Yeah. But who will China sell its goods to? Last I checked, Russia has 144M people and EU / US / Japan have 1B+. Of course, China has a large domestic market but exports are still ~20% of GDP for them.

sigmaprimus 5y ago
The other side of that coin is who will the West buy their goods from, I would rather be in the position of having too much to sell than not enough to buy. The EU is already dependent on Russian natural gas and middle eastern oil so they will be forced to accept the new trade rules even if under protest. There is a possibility that the commonwealth countries along with the US might be able to put up a good fight but the current state of anti colonial rhetoric from within most commonwealth countries will most likely push the current leaders of these countries out of power and one by one they will join the rest of the world...The sun has been setting on the British Empire for a while now.
- ericmay 5y ago
  > The other side of that coin is who will the West buy their goods from Themselves? Allied nations? Other countries around the world? Your entire discussion centers around this idea that all resources and all things are made in these non-western countries. It's a faulty assumption. China is dependent on imports as well - remember the rolling blackouts shutting down factories in China when they stopped coal imports to teach Australia a lesson and then Australia just sold the coal elsewhere? [1] Europe is "dependent" on Russian gas but those who are in charge in Russia really like that European money and their vacation homes. Long-term Europe is just fine here because they can just build alternative energy sources (warming planet may make much of Europe even less dependent on Russian natural gas for heating). It doesn't help them today but if the costs are too high there becomes a point that it's either not worth it, or liquified natural gas products from the US become attractive. It should go without saying that the oligarchs in Russia who run these companies... like not having their villas in London confiscated due to "sanctions". There's an upper limit on the maximum pain (outside of actual war) that either will inflict upon the other. The EU dependency on Russian gas thing is yet another overly simplified boogeyman like the US Dollar Reserve Currency status. What is actually concerning is Ukraine and how serious Putin is about invading and starting a war and whether or not he stops at Ukraine or does something drastic. I don't think the EU will be able to coordinate an effective military response which may lead to the block dissolving, especially if Putin does something crazy like invade Poland or some NATO country that isn't "important" - will the West really go to war? If Putin gambles here I don't think nukes will fly. So now Russia gets to fight a conventional war in Europe without existential risk - it's a great move for him geopolitically and strategically. EU member states such as France and Germany (the former is the only one that appears to have the ability to even fight) would basically go into a "save yourself" mode and start acting independently when push comes to shove. Outside of the UK most of the rest of the EU is far too small or useless to do anything. Americans are much more willing to fight in Europe than Italians or Spaniards are and I don't think we'd even send ground troops unless we're in an actual World War III scenario which nobody in the West wants to engage in, hence the stronger Russian upper hand here. Though I wouldn't put it past the U.S. to take a chance to really screw with Russia here in the meantime. [2] I wonder how that happened. Interesting coincidental timing. [1] https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/05/china-power-supply-crunch-relationship-with-australia-gdp-outlook.html https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/05/china-power-supply-crunch-re... [2] https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10331843/New-Russian-stealth-warship-suffers-225million-damage-catching-fire-construction.html https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10331843/New-Russia...