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Indeed my first assessment way back when it was <$1 was that it was a Ponzi scheme. However, the market has been saying something I ignored for years... so I t

by icu 5y ago

Indeed my first assessment way back when it was <$1 was that it was a Ponzi scheme. However, the market has been saying something I ignored for years... so I took another look at things and this time really took the time to study it. By study it I mean: 1) Read the Whitepaper 2) Read the Bitcoin Standard Book (and subsequently the Fiat Standard book) 3) Listened to The Saylor Series on YouTube, and 4) Did the MIT Blockchain and Money course. I then re-considered criticism from: 1) Various Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger interviews 2) The Blackpaper by Nassim Taleb, and 3) Various interviews with Peter Schiff. My conclusion is that most arguments raised by the above respectable figures in criticism of Bitcoin are ignorant of evidence contrary to their arguements and display a surprising lack of knowledge or understanding that careful study would have overcome. I say that as I was that ignorant person. There are some valid criticisms, however they are in the same category as any new emerging technology. I then decided to venture into crypto with money I could completely lose and not worry about, and it really helped my understanding further. I'm now convinced this is like the pre-dotcom bust whereupon Amazon, Google, Facebook etc emerged to generate enormous value. There is enormous Alpha here to be made but I'm not arrogant to believe I know what will emerge as the market winners, but I have a stake in it now, and I'm further educating myself. I encourage dedicated study and an open, but critical mind, before making any aspersions on crypto.

bsima 5y ago
hiq 5y ago
It would be more helpful if you could say what changed your mind. From your comment I can't say whether you changed your mind because you learned something in your studies, or because BTC went from <1$ to 10k$+.
- horsawlarway 5y ago
  > or because BTC went from <1$ to 10k$+ I can give you a very good guess.
  - icu 5y ago
    Not really, I don't dwell on it. If anything it was a series of life changes that has nothing to do with crypto that caused me to reassess life in a different way and question and challenge thoughts and decisions I had made in the past. You could just put it down to my personal growth. At that time my friend recommended I read the Bitcoin standard and rather than arrogantly believing I knew better, I read the content as an exercise in humility and curiosity.
- jonathan-adly 5y ago
  I am not the OP, but like him, I though Bitcoin was a scam until early this year. What changed my mind when a centralized entity like Robinhood took away the buy button of an equity in most capital-friendly country on Earth. I wasn't even involved, so I wasn't mad. But rationally, if someone can wake up one day and decide you can't buy an equity with little consequences, then it is entirely possible for a bank to take away the withdraw button. Even if we assume competence and good sense of the state and the banks (big if!), they will always act for the good of the majority - which is not always good for you or your family. (take the pros and cons of inflation for example) Follow the logic of what's possible with the centralization of money, and quickly you would realize that you really own nothing, except what's in a cold-wallet secured by a decentralized, global network and mathematical facts. There is nothing stopping any central bank from inflating ANY national currency to 0, except good sense and competence. You can and should still believe in their competence and good sense if you are in a democratic country with stable regime, but it would be irrational to not insure against it. Also, it is completely irrational to believe in the good sense and competence of someone like Erdogan or any of the many clown head of states around.
  - hiq 5y ago
    I think this comment is on point and related to your points: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29646492 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29646492 I'm not familiar with Robinhood, but I think it's mostly about buying stocks. Blockchains won't help you do this, at least not in a decentralized manner. You'll be stuck buying tokens with no real connection to e.g. the US economy, until it's been approved legally. > Follow the logic of what's possible with the centralization of money, and quickly you would realize that you really own nothing Inflation is a problem, and has had dramatic impact historically, but there's no indication that bitcoin is a solution to this. Just look at the USD/BTC rate over the last year.
    - jonathan-adly 5y ago
      > I'm not familiar with Robinhood, but I think it's mostly about buying stocks. Nope. You missed the point. It's about a company (or centralized entity) being in control of your money. > Blockchains won't help you do this, at least not in a decentralized manner. You'll be stuck buying tokens Blockchains and tokens are non-sense words. Bitcoin is a protocol and a network, the first blockchain. It is an open-ledger that facilitates value exchange between two willing participants (you don't have to take part if you don't want). > it's been approved legally Bitcoin is approved legally in the US, and has the world's smartest and most experienced money managers and hedge funds invested in it. Just a few names: 1. Stanley Druckenmiller 2. Ray Dalio 3. Geroge Soros 4. Paul Tudor Jones 5. Steve Cohen 6. Louis Bacon Would recommend reading this: https://saifedean.com/thebitcoinstandard/ https://saifedean.com/thebitcoinstandard/ Written by a PhD from Columbia University with an MSc from the London School of Economics, and a Bachelor of Engineering.
- johndevor 5y ago
  Imagine you're Turkish, Venezuelan, Argentinian, etc. BTC might be your best bet. Now guess which 1st world countries are next. Edit: as I think Naval said, crypto is insurance against politicians.
  - hiq 5y ago
    > Imagine you're Turkish, Venezuelan, Argentinian, etc. > BTC might be your best bet. I can sympathize with this idea, although if the US government just allowed Turkish people to open bank accounts in USD and transact with each other, they might do that instead. Many countries already use the USD as their de facto currency. > Now guess which 1st world countries are next. Why would they be next? I think it's rather the reverse: once a country is developed enough with a working banking system, it tends to rely on it because it's more efficient and provides more guarantees.
    - Geee 5y ago
      It's not beneficial to use money from another country. Managing your own monetary policy and being able to spend without limits is important tool for governments. Currencies are one tool which countries use to compete with each other. Those countries which use US dollar suffer from its inflation, but don't get the benefit of unlimited spending. In other words, inflation in Turkey would fund deficit spending in USA. Using US dollar would be better for the people, but their governments don't want to give up this power. That's why the local financial institutions place limitations on foreign currencies or outright make them illegal. With Bitcoin, people can completely opt-out of this "inflation tax" without asking permission from their governments. Another option is to use stablecoins such as Tether USD, which seems to be gaining popularity as a currency in countries with high inflation. This is problematic because Tether gains the power of a central bank without any oversight. Bitcoin is the only currency which has very high guarantees of its expected monetary inflation, and that's why it would be the best choice for individuals.
      - hiq 5y ago
        > Managing your own monetary policy and being able to spend without limits is important tool for governments. Sure, but we're talking about switching to BTC, which doesn't allow this either. > Bitcoin is the only currency which has very high guarantees of its expected monetary inflation. As somebody else pointed out in another thread, bitcoin is either a currency or an asset depending on who you talk to. You mention it is a currency, but it's hard to find it credible in this role given its volatility. Given that its price is a function of supply and demand, but that we can't predict what the demand will be, which strong guarantees are you thinking about?
- icu 5y ago
  I first "looked" at BTC @ <$1 and by looked I visited a few websites. I then looked again at ~$100 and felt that it was too involved with crime for me to be associated in any way with it (I work in Regulated Financial markets and I didn't want to take any career chance I could get accused of money laundering). At ~$1,000 I actually played with some code in Python to mine BTC but figured I'd need an ASIC rig and didn't bother. 7 December 2020 one of the smartest people I know recommended I read The Bitcoin Standard I think BTC was ~$23,000. I then spent the next year studying it and talking through it with my father (he's a Boomer who favours Real Estate over all other asset classes) as a way to understand it better by discussing it with someone else. I started buying BTC at about ~$55,000 before the recent crash. I'm fine with the volatility as I have a 10+ year time horizon. I did however start accumulating other cryptos post crash and have been working through portfolio construction based on several themes. Surprisingly my Boomer father has decided to build his own crypto portfolio through a company based in NYC but the AML KYC hurdles with US based crypto companies (I won't name and shame them) has taken so long that he still hasn't managed to buy anything... which I suppose is a good thing since he missed the recent "crash". However, he's fine with it going to zero (and so am I). I think that unless you're diversified across different asset classes, lived through a total market crash (or two), and can lose the lot, you shouldn't be speculating in crypto.
  - hiq 5y ago
    Sorry, I must be tired. Did I misunderstand your answer, or are you saying that you did change your mind about BTC just because it increased in value? If that's not the case, why did you change your mind about it? Edit: sorry I just saw another comment of yours down below, will read that.
    - icu 5y ago
      The trigger was a confluence of events: A) Personal, life changing, events forced a total re-examination of my psychology and beliefs B) One of the smartest people I know making a book recommendation. At this time, and moving forward, I began to really challenge myself as to my virtues and examine my emotions and thoughts for vices (anti-virtues if you will). My initial reaction to the book recommendation was dubious, especially due to the parabolic price rises and volatility. It was at this time I decided I need to work on being humble and curious, so I embarked upon the real start of my crypto "journey".
- ur-whale 5y ago
  For what it's worth, for me the truly enlightening moment was when VISA and other "payment" networks shut down wikileaks access to funding an they switched to Bitcoin and were able to continue the mission.
okareaman 5y ago
Did you become a believer without evidence (faith) or do you wish to share what changed your mind? Like physicist Richard Feynman said, if you can't explain it simply, then you don't understand it.
- horsawlarway 5y ago
  He became a believer because he's now part of the funnel, and it's in his interest to continue promoting it to new users. Full stop.
  - fsflover 5y ago
    He became a believer before becoming a part of it.
    - horsawlarway 5y ago
      > I then decided to venture into crypto with money I could completely lose and not worry about, and it really helped my understanding further. Did he? Did he really? As someone who has genuinely used bitcoin for one of the (VERY few) use cases where it's actually useful - buying drugs on a dark market. I don't buy it. You can find a lot more detail on my position here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29331167 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29331167 I'm not going to type it all out again.
      - icu 5y ago
        OP here. Yes, I had to send "money" to China, for a service rendered in the US, while I am physically in London. It was a totally legitimate transaction and had nothing to do with anything dark market or drug related. Thanks for the link to your discussion, I will read it, but please don't throw out criminal accusations in HN.
        horsawlarway 5y ago
        > please don't throw out criminal accusations in HN. Pointing out that you have a very clear conflict of interest here, and that you should be taken with many grains of salt, is not a criminal accusation. If you think I'm claiming you use dark markets, please go read my comment again. I'm very clearly not... ( and I hope you had better reading comprehension on the crypto materials! :P )

by icu 5y ago

bsima 5y ago

hiq 5y ago

It would be more helpful if you could say what changed your mind. From your comment I can't say whether you changed your mind because you learned something in your studies, or because BTC went from <1$ to 10k$+.

horsawlarway 5y ago
> or because BTC went from <1$ to 10k$+ I can give you a very good guess.
- icu 5y ago
  Not really, I don't dwell on it. If anything it was a series of life changes that has nothing to do with crypto that caused me to reassess life in a different way and question and challenge thoughts and decisions I had made in the past. You could just put it down to my personal growth. At that time my friend recommended I read the Bitcoin standard and rather than arrogantly believing I knew better, I read the content as an exercise in humility and curiosity.
jonathan-adly 5y ago
I am not the OP, but like him, I though Bitcoin was a scam until early this year. What changed my mind when a centralized entity like Robinhood took away the buy button of an equity in most capital-friendly country on Earth. I wasn't even involved, so I wasn't mad. But rationally, if someone can wake up one day and decide you can't buy an equity with little consequences, then it is entirely possible for a bank to take away the withdraw button. Even if we assume competence and good sense of the state and the banks (big if!), they will always act for the good of the majority - which is not always good for you or your family. (take the pros and cons of inflation for example) Follow the logic of what's possible with the centralization of money, and quickly you would realize that you really own nothing, except what's in a cold-wallet secured by a decentralized, global network and mathematical facts. There is nothing stopping any central bank from inflating ANY national currency to 0, except good sense and competence. You can and should still believe in their competence and good sense if you are in a democratic country with stable regime, but it would be irrational to not insure against it. Also, it is completely irrational to believe in the good sense and competence of someone like Erdogan or any of the many clown head of states around.
- hiq 5y ago
  I think this comment is on point and related to your points: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29646492 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29646492 I'm not familiar with Robinhood, but I think it's mostly about buying stocks. Blockchains won't help you do this, at least not in a decentralized manner. You'll be stuck buying tokens with no real connection to e.g. the US economy, until it's been approved legally. > Follow the logic of what's possible with the centralization of money, and quickly you would realize that you really own nothing Inflation is a problem, and has had dramatic impact historically, but there's no indication that bitcoin is a solution to this. Just look at the USD/BTC rate over the last year.
  - jonathan-adly 5y ago
    > I'm not familiar with Robinhood, but I think it's mostly about buying stocks. Nope. You missed the point. It's about a company (or centralized entity) being in control of your money. > Blockchains won't help you do this, at least not in a decentralized manner. You'll be stuck buying tokens Blockchains and tokens are non-sense words. Bitcoin is a protocol and a network, the first blockchain. It is an open-ledger that facilitates value exchange between two willing participants (you don't have to take part if you don't want). > it's been approved legally Bitcoin is approved legally in the US, and has the world's smartest and most experienced money managers and hedge funds invested in it. Just a few names: 1. Stanley Druckenmiller 2. Ray Dalio 3. Geroge Soros 4. Paul Tudor Jones 5. Steve Cohen 6. Louis Bacon Would recommend reading this: https://saifedean.com/thebitcoinstandard/ https://saifedean.com/thebitcoinstandard/ Written by a PhD from Columbia University with an MSc from the London School of Economics, and a Bachelor of Engineering.
johndevor 5y ago
Imagine you're Turkish, Venezuelan, Argentinian, etc. BTC might be your best bet. Now guess which 1st world countries are next. Edit: as I think Naval said, crypto is insurance against politicians.
- hiq 5y ago
  > Imagine you're Turkish, Venezuelan, Argentinian, etc. > BTC might be your best bet. I can sympathize with this idea, although if the US government just allowed Turkish people to open bank accounts in USD and transact with each other, they might do that instead. Many countries already use the USD as their de facto currency. > Now guess which 1st world countries are next. Why would they be next? I think it's rather the reverse: once a country is developed enough with a working banking system, it tends to rely on it because it's more efficient and provides more guarantees.
  - Geee 5y ago
    It's not beneficial to use money from another country. Managing your own monetary policy and being able to spend without limits is important tool for governments. Currencies are one tool which countries use to compete with each other. Those countries which use US dollar suffer from its inflation, but don't get the benefit of unlimited spending. In other words, inflation in Turkey would fund deficit spending in USA. Using US dollar would be better for the people, but their governments don't want to give up this power. That's why the local financial institutions place limitations on foreign currencies or outright make them illegal. With Bitcoin, people can completely opt-out of this "inflation tax" without asking permission from their governments. Another option is to use stablecoins such as Tether USD, which seems to be gaining popularity as a currency in countries with high inflation. This is problematic because Tether gains the power of a central bank without any oversight. Bitcoin is the only currency which has very high guarantees of its expected monetary inflation, and that's why it would be the best choice for individuals.
    - hiq 5y ago
      > Managing your own monetary policy and being able to spend without limits is important tool for governments. Sure, but we're talking about switching to BTC, which doesn't allow this either. > Bitcoin is the only currency which has very high guarantees of its expected monetary inflation. As somebody else pointed out in another thread, bitcoin is either a currency or an asset depending on who you talk to. You mention it is a currency, but it's hard to find it credible in this role given its volatility. Given that its price is a function of supply and demand, but that we can't predict what the demand will be, which strong guarantees are you thinking about?
icu 5y ago
I first "looked" at BTC @ <$1 and by looked I visited a few websites. I then looked again at ~$100 and felt that it was too involved with crime for me to be associated in any way with it (I work in Regulated Financial markets and I didn't want to take any career chance I could get accused of money laundering). At ~$1,000 I actually played with some code in Python to mine BTC but figured I'd need an ASIC rig and didn't bother. 7 December 2020 one of the smartest people I know recommended I read The Bitcoin Standard I think BTC was ~$23,000. I then spent the next year studying it and talking through it with my father (he's a Boomer who favours Real Estate over all other asset classes) as a way to understand it better by discussing it with someone else. I started buying BTC at about ~$55,000 before the recent crash. I'm fine with the volatility as I have a 10+ year time horizon. I did however start accumulating other cryptos post crash and have been working through portfolio construction based on several themes. Surprisingly my Boomer father has decided to build his own crypto portfolio through a company based in NYC but the AML KYC hurdles with US based crypto companies (I won't name and shame them) has taken so long that he still hasn't managed to buy anything... which I suppose is a good thing since he missed the recent "crash". However, he's fine with it going to zero (and so am I). I think that unless you're diversified across different asset classes, lived through a total market crash (or two), and can lose the lot, you shouldn't be speculating in crypto.
- hiq 5y ago
  Sorry, I must be tired. Did I misunderstand your answer, or are you saying that you did change your mind about BTC just because it increased in value? If that's not the case, why did you change your mind about it? Edit: sorry I just saw another comment of yours down below, will read that.
  - icu 5y ago
    The trigger was a confluence of events: A) Personal, life changing, events forced a total re-examination of my psychology and beliefs B) One of the smartest people I know making a book recommendation. At this time, and moving forward, I began to really challenge myself as to my virtues and examine my emotions and thoughts for vices (anti-virtues if you will). My initial reaction to the book recommendation was dubious, especially due to the parabolic price rises and volatility. It was at this time I decided I need to work on being humble and curious, so I embarked upon the real start of my crypto "journey".
ur-whale 5y ago
For what it's worth, for me the truly enlightening moment was when VISA and other "payment" networks shut down wikileaks access to funding an they switched to Bitcoin and were able to continue the mission.

okareaman 5y ago

Did you become a believer without evidence (faith) or do you wish to share what changed your mind? Like physicist Richard Feynman said, if you can't explain it simply, then you don't understand it.

horsawlarway 5y ago
He became a believer because he's now part of the funnel, and it's in his interest to continue promoting it to new users. Full stop.
- fsflover 5y ago
  He became a believer before becoming a part of it.
  - horsawlarway 5y ago
    > I then decided to venture into crypto with money I could completely lose and not worry about, and it really helped my understanding further. Did he? Did he really? As someone who has genuinely used bitcoin for one of the (VERY few) use cases where it's actually useful - buying drugs on a dark market. I don't buy it. You can find a lot more detail on my position here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29331167 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29331167 I'm not going to type it all out again.
    - icu 5y ago
      OP here. Yes, I had to send "money" to China, for a service rendered in the US, while I am physically in London. It was a totally legitimate transaction and had nothing to do with anything dark market or drug related. Thanks for the link to your discussion, I will read it, but please don't throw out criminal accusations in HN.
      - horsawlarway 5y ago
        > please don't throw out criminal accusations in HN. Pointing out that you have a very clear conflict of interest here, and that you should be taken with many grains of salt, is not a criminal accusation. If you think I'm claiming you use dark markets, please go read my comment again. I'm very clearly not... ( and I hope you had better reading comprehension on the crypto materials! :P )