3 ms·

You said: > And, as expected, it appears to be far less harmful than Delta And the title said: > Omicron infections appear no less severe than Delta Hmm, s

You said: > And, as expected, it appears to be far less harmful than Delta And the title said: > Omicron infections appear no less severe than Delta Hmm, somethings doesn't seem right? I assume you misread the title. > This is how a virus evolves, it gets weaker, which allows it to spread faster. Dead people don't spread viruses. Yes, viruses usually evolve to transmit better and the host and virus usually co-evolve to a less severe disease. But, this applies only to viruses that transmit after people get symptoms. If people spread the virus first for a few days and then get sick, there is no inherent evolutionary pressure to select for less severe virus variants. Even the original SarsCovII virus (let's say Wuhan variant) had already the capability to spread before symptom onset as well as after. So it is unclear, how this evolves further.

pa7x1 5y ago
Thanks for highlighting the co-evolution aspect. I find it more likely that for viruses with a pre-symptomatic phase is the selective pressure caused by the virus on the host that ends up resulting in lower severity long term. By simply removing genes from the genepool that were particularly prone to complications. With a pre-symptomatic phase the selective pressure on the virus is towards more infectivity and longer pre-symptomatic phase. Not necessarily towards milder outcomes.
mikem170 5y ago
The title of the current article doesn't change the numbers from South Africa indicating that Omicron puts 80% less people in hospitals than Delta: > Early data from the South African health ministry released last week found that only 1.7% of cases in the latest wave have resulted in hospitalizations so far, compared with 18% at the same point during the previous wave, which was dominated by the Delta variant. [0] Their methodology also seems better than that used for the U.K. numbers in the article, which compared all past cases to current Omicron cases. I personally think that's a more complex comparison, with perhaps more room for confounding factors. I assume the U.K. numbers are a week or two behind the numbers from South Africa. I assume more numbers will be forthcoming in another couple/few weeks, along with early numbers from more countries. Time will tell. The post you replied to also mentioned that coronaviruses often evolve to be weaker because that helps them spread. I've seen experts say the same. You said: > this applies only to viruses that transmit after people get symptoms Are you saying that Covid-19 does not transmit after the onset of symptoms? Do you have a reference supporting that? I found sources saying that Covid-19 may be transmissible starting two days before the onset of symptoms, but nothing saying that it stops when symptoms start. I found the CDC saying to isolate at least 10 days after symptom onset [1]. I would assume that those days of symptoms would be the optimal time to transmit a virus, such as when coughing, running, and sneezing. Are you saying that Covid-19 is only spread asymptomatically? [0] https://www.yahoo.com/news/south-africas-drop-daily-covid-141453555.html https://www.yahoo.com/news/south-africas-drop-daily-covid-14... [1] https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/duration-isolation.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/duration-isola...

pa7x1 5y ago

Thanks for highlighting the co-evolution aspect. I find it more likely that for viruses with a pre-symptomatic phase is the selective pressure caused by the virus on the host that ends up resulting in lower severity long term. By simply removing genes from the genepool that were particularly prone to complications. With a pre-symptomatic phase the selective pressure on the virus is towards more infectivity and longer pre-symptomatic phase. Not necessarily towards milder outcomes.

mikem170 5y ago

The title of the current article doesn't change the numbers from South Africa indicating that Omicron puts 80% less people in hospitals than Delta: > Early data from the South African health ministry released last week found that only 1.7% of cases in the latest wave have resulted in hospitalizations so far, compared with 18% at the same point during the previous wave, which was dominated by the Delta variant. [0] Their methodology also seems better than that used for the U.K. numbers in the article, which compared all past cases to current Omicron cases. I personally think that's a more complex comparison, with perhaps more room for confounding factors. I assume the U.K. numbers are a week or two behind the numbers from South Africa. I assume more numbers will be forthcoming in another couple/few weeks, along with early numbers from more countries. Time will tell. The post you replied to also mentioned that coronaviruses often evolve to be weaker because that helps them spread. I've seen experts say the same. You said: > this applies only to viruses that transmit after people get symptoms Are you saying that Covid-19 does not transmit after the onset of symptoms? Do you have a reference supporting that? I found sources saying that Covid-19 may be transmissible starting two days before the onset of symptoms, but nothing saying that it stops when symptoms start. I found the CDC saying to isolate at least 10 days after symptom onset [1]. I would assume that those days of symptoms would be the optimal time to transmit a virus, such as when coughing, running, and sneezing. Are you saying that Covid-19 is only spread asymptomatically? [0] https://www.yahoo.com/news/south-africas-drop-daily-covid-141453555.html https://www.yahoo.com/news/south-africas-drop-daily-covid-14... [1] https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/duration-isolation.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/duration-isola...