5 ms·

The end-game is not so much that the virus adapts (which can happen but mutations are not that easily predicable) but that our immune systems become adapted. We

by NoPie 5y ago

The end-game is not so much that the virus adapts (which can happen but mutations are not that easily predicable) but that our immune systems become adapted. We can see this already. Previously infected and/or vaccinated people can get omicron but it will be very mild disease. Next year there will be another variant and people will get sniffles again. Next year another variant that could easily cause severe disease to immuno-naive person but for those who already got 2-3 vaccinations plus mild omicron or whatever it will be just sniffles again. That's how most cold viruses work. It was clear from the beginning that covid belongs to this category. We just hadn't had previous exposure yet, therefore it was so severe. We overreacted when we thought that we can eliminate cold virus by strict isolation measures.

leereeves 5y ago
> that our immune systems become adapted. Perhaps, but the first person in the US known to have died from Omicron had already had Covid once before. According to the news, he was also in his 50s with other underlying health conditions. I think, much like the flu, Covid will continue to be a threat to people who are elderly and/or already in poor health. And much like the flu, yearly deaths will probably decrease somewhat but continue to number in the tens or hundreds of thousands.
- steveylang 5y ago
  For today's elderly or otherwise at risk, that may very well be the case. It's going to be the younger people today who are either vaccinated or survive infection, that become the much more resistant adult and elderly population years and decades from now.
steveylang 5y ago
Here is an pretty good NPR article that discusses the same concept: https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/10/29/1050465159/covids-endgame-scientists-have-a-clue-about-where-sars-cov-2-is-headed https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/10/29/1050465... Also the article in Science by the computational biologist interviewed for the article: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abe6522 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abe6522 They predict that SARS-CoV-2 will eventually become something akin to the common cold, as long as 1. immune protection against severe disease persists, and 2.) the virus continues to be relatively mild in kids.

by NoPie 5y ago

leereeves 5y ago

> that our immune systems become adapted. Perhaps, but the first person in the US known to have died from Omicron had already had Covid once before. According to the news, he was also in his 50s with other underlying health conditions. I think, much like the flu, Covid will continue to be a threat to people who are elderly and/or already in poor health. And much like the flu, yearly deaths will probably decrease somewhat but continue to number in the tens or hundreds of thousands.

steveylang 5y ago
For today's elderly or otherwise at risk, that may very well be the case. It's going to be the younger people today who are either vaccinated or survive infection, that become the much more resistant adult and elderly population years and decades from now.

steveylang 5y ago

Here is an pretty good NPR article that discusses the same concept: https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/10/29/1050465159/covids-endgame-scientists-have-a-clue-about-where-sars-cov-2-is-headed https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/10/29/1050465... Also the article in Science by the computational biologist interviewed for the article: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abe6522 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abe6522 They predict that SARS-CoV-2 will eventually become something akin to the common cold, as long as 1. immune protection against severe disease persists, and 2.) the virus continues to be relatively mild in kids.