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Like the article mentions, Gleangen handles the "proximity" issue by letting a predictor choose their confidence (which maps to the volume of the underlying tra
by Rebelgecko 5y ago
Like the article mentions, Gleangen handles the "proximity" issue by letting a predictor choose their confidence (which maps to the volume of the underlying trade). As long as people are self-aware enough to judge how confident/unconfident they are about their predictions I think this tends to work itself out in the end.
WRT to QAnonization, I managed to make decent returns on prediction markets for the 2020 election after it was over. It's like the old saying about how the lottery is a tax on people who aren't good at statistics. Prediction markets are a tax on people who have irrational beliefs and/or incomplete information.