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> The problem with prediction markets is that information is not equally distributed amongst participants, and vote "weight" needs to be adjusted based upon pro
by skzv 5y ago
> The problem with prediction markets is that information is not equally distributed amongst participants, and vote "weight" needs to be adjusted based upon proximity to information as well as rational, objective decision-making criteria.
This adds unnecessary complexity. Prefer simplicity. The votes are already weighted by bet size, and those with greater proximity to relevant information or insight will tend to bet more. Empirically, prediction markets have done well.
- PeterCorless 5y agoNot necessarily. I might not want to bet on my own situation. At all. Ever. Because that might tip my hand as to what I know about what's going on. Many close-to-the-problem folks might then bet "zero." But just adjacent to it, folks closer to it than a random stranger, but not as tight-lipped, might make bets. But that's better than a "lol this rocks" or "lol this sucks" bet by someone who has absolutely no knowledge of the situation — at all. That's either going to be a random bet or, more likely, a pre-biased placing of a bet. Also, the link I provided above expired. Here's a better link; you can then download the PDF from there: https://direct.mit.edu/itgg/article/2/3/73/9498/The-Policy-Analysis-Market-A-Thwarted-Experiment https://direct.mit.edu/itgg/article/2/3/73/9498/The-Policy-A...