4 ms·

Ships carrying natural gas head for Europe as prices surge to new high

20 points by csomar 5y ago

melling 5y ago
Coal usage globally for electricity is at an all time high too https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/12/20/coal-fired-power-generation-set-to-hit-all-time-high-in-2021-iea.html https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/12/20/coal-fired-power-generat...
- chewz 5y ago
  With freezing December, wind output lowest since November, gas flows from Russia practically stoped, last German nuclear reactors being turned off forever and French reactors under maintenance, coal seems like the last option left for Europe.. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-21/european-gas-surges-as-russian-flows-via-key-route-drop-to-zero?sref=DLVyDcXJ https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-21/european-...
throwaway888abc 5y ago
"Minerva Chios, a US LNG tanker, was heading east near India on December 15 but has since turned around and was now on course for the Suez Canal, suggesting a delivery to Europe, Froley said." "A second US LNG vessel turned around near the Malacca Strait last week, while a third vessel delivered a partial cargo of Australian LNG to Barcelona on December 2 after leaving the larger part of the shipment in China." Wild times Unpaywalled: https://archive.md/3c9UO https://archive.md/3c9UO
devtul 5y ago
The simpler explanation would be producers redirecting their gas to a higher priced market. I can't shake the idea that there's a non-zero chance of this being mitigation to a looming crisis with Russia.
- reducesuffering 5y ago
  That may have something to do with the 175k Russian troop posture along Ukraine's borders and US/Russian leaders already telegraphing how they'll respond so there aren't any surprises for either of them. Putin says sign treaties preventing Ukraine and Georgia from ever joining NATO, and withdraw NATO troops from all former Soviet countries or it's their fault Russia is "forced" to annex Ukraine. (impossible; since Russia annexes either way. this is just realpolitik. If NATO doesn't comply, Russia has an "excuse" to annex. If NATO does comply, it's just a temporary measure until some manufactured issue in Ukraine gives Russia a reason to annex again anyway like Crimea. Either way Russia will make a Russian-friendly Ukrainian state, but if NATO help retreats it's just easier, might as well ask.) Biden says there won't be US troops in Ukraine but the economic consequences will be immensely painful. Therefore, policy pundits say Russia could annex by Jan 2022.
  - unmole 5y ago
    > Therefore, policy pundits say Russia could annex by Jan 2022. Is there a market where one can bet against this prediction?
    - reducesuffering 5y ago
      Not that I know of. But I wouldn't bet on any EV from betting against black swans long term. Perhaps you should investigate a bit more. “What is happening now, the tension that is developing in Europe, is their fault,” Mr. Putin told a Russian Defense Ministry board meeting. “At every step, Russia was forced to somehow respond, at every step the situation was constantly getting worse, worse, worse. And today we are in a situation where we are forced to decide something.” Also see: https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1473362460673515527?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1473362460673515527?...
      - deleted 5y ago
        [deleted]

20 points by csomar 5y ago

Coal usage globally for electricity is at an all time high too https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/12/20/coal-fired-power-generation-set-to-hit-all-time-high-in-2021-iea.html https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/12/20/coal-fired-power-generat...

chewz 5y ago
With freezing December, wind output lowest since November, gas flows from Russia practically stoped, last German nuclear reactors being turned off forever and French reactors under maintenance, coal seems like the last option left for Europe.. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-21/european-gas-surges-as-russian-flows-via-key-route-drop-to-zero?sref=DLVyDcXJ https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-21/european-...

throwaway888abc 5y ago

"Minerva Chios, a US LNG tanker, was heading east near India on December 15 but has since turned around and was now on course for the Suez Canal, suggesting a delivery to Europe, Froley said." "A second US LNG vessel turned around near the Malacca Strait last week, while a third vessel delivered a partial cargo of Australian LNG to Barcelona on December 2 after leaving the larger part of the shipment in China." Wild times Unpaywalled: https://archive.md/3c9UO https://archive.md/3c9UO

devtul 5y ago

The simpler explanation would be producers redirecting their gas to a higher priced market. I can't shake the idea that there's a non-zero chance of this being mitigation to a looming crisis with Russia.

reducesuffering 5y ago
That may have something to do with the 175k Russian troop posture along Ukraine's borders and US/Russian leaders already telegraphing how they'll respond so there aren't any surprises for either of them. Putin says sign treaties preventing Ukraine and Georgia from ever joining NATO, and withdraw NATO troops from all former Soviet countries or it's their fault Russia is "forced" to annex Ukraine. (impossible; since Russia annexes either way. this is just realpolitik. If NATO doesn't comply, Russia has an "excuse" to annex. If NATO does comply, it's just a temporary measure until some manufactured issue in Ukraine gives Russia a reason to annex again anyway like Crimea. Either way Russia will make a Russian-friendly Ukrainian state, but if NATO help retreats it's just easier, might as well ask.) Biden says there won't be US troops in Ukraine but the economic consequences will be immensely painful. Therefore, policy pundits say Russia could annex by Jan 2022.
- unmole 5y ago
  > Therefore, policy pundits say Russia could annex by Jan 2022. Is there a market where one can bet against this prediction?
  - reducesuffering 5y ago
    Not that I know of. But I wouldn't bet on any EV from betting against black swans long term. Perhaps you should investigate a bit more. “What is happening now, the tension that is developing in Europe, is their fault,” Mr. Putin told a Russian Defense Ministry board meeting. “At every step, Russia was forced to somehow respond, at every step the situation was constantly getting worse, worse, worse. And today we are in a situation where we are forced to decide something.” Also see: https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1473362460673515527?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1473362460673515527?...
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]